What happened in Russia just now?

A short lived revolt with deep consequences for the rest of the world

Wild. That was the only comment I could come up with when Yevgeny Prigozhin and his troops took over the eastern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don early Saturday morning and started a march on Moscow. Although not intended as a direct coup, it had all the hallmarks of such an effort: a conflict over how the war in Ukraine was to be conducted resulted in Putin trying to marginalize and isolate Prigozhin and his 25,000 men and ended in directly challenging Putin’s authority. With the world cheering on and expecting Putin’s imminent fall, things anti-climaxed late Saturday evening with Belarus’ President Lukashenka brokering a deal: Prigozhin would be given a free passage to Belarus, no fighting, no charges pressed, over and done with. Let’s just forget about it boys.

But, really, did we not just witness an incredible, potentially lethal direct domestic challenge to Putin, the very thing we had all been predicting to come sooner rather than later? We did indeed, so here are a few thoughts:

Putin’s Position - this was a direct and open attempt to undermine Putin and he blinked. He avoided a military confrontation knowing full well that he could have lost it. Any dictator worth this salt, including the ruthless Vlad himself, would have ended this in the bloodiest way possible and purged anyone who could even remotely be associated with the mutineers. A page from Stalin’s handbook would have sufficed. But he couldn’t this time and he had to let his rival off the hook. Bad mistake. Of course you could argue Prigozhin blinked too and maybe he caved under pressure, but appearances matter and it was the Russian president who looks to be the weaker one here. So, not only has Putin delivered his nation a disastrous war, he has now also signalled that he lacks the resolve to decisively crush domestic pushback. The next group to use the war to rearrange power in the Kremlin can get to work, their target has far less political and military clout now.

Good news, no? - the short answer is maybe. It was astounding to see all the weekend commentators rushing in to celebrate Putin’s imminent demise and starting to think about a reformed Russia and also Belarus. Really? Has anyone bothered to look into Prigozhin’s career to date? The threat of regime change in Russia was always to come not from democratic reformers, no, it would come from the hard right, those that believed that Putin was inept in his execution of the war and that a much harder and violent approach was required. Anyone thinking that a successful coup would open the prison doors, bring Navalny back in the process and set the clock back to 1990s style democratic reform needs a reality check. A Prigozhin or similar group seizing power would be far worse for Russia and Ukraine and it would also set off a series of further bloody domestic struggles. Finally, the irony is now that rather than an implosion of Lukashenka’s power is that the Belarus tyrant is now backed up by Prigozhin.

The War in Ukraine - things are not going well for Ukraine despite some minor successes since the start of the summer offensive. So all hope on hearing about the Prigozhin revolt veered towards it being a game changer, in particular as the capture of Rostov-on-Don sandwiched the Russian army in between Ukrainian troops and the rebels challenging Moscow. While it only lasted a day or so, the confusion may have helped Ukraine during that short period of time. But if Putin has learned anything from this weekend’s drama it is this: he needs to get serious about winning in Ukraine if he wants to save his own skin and his place in Russian history. The outcome of this short lived revolt may well be an all-out assault on Ukraine whereby no tools are left unused.

Twitter - and finally, yes, despite all the hate and dismay about Elon Musk and the wild ride that followed his acquisition, the platform is invaluable at times like this. Lying in bed on Friday night I had all the world’s experts and best journalists weighing in with non-stop messages and opinions, chat rooms were experts held forth as well as the latest videos of troop movements around southern Russia, all on that much maligned but also so useful and informative platform. For rapidly moving news events there is no other place to go than Twitter. The company is no longer publicly traded unfortunately, but I am still long on Twitter. We will need it in the days ahead as Russia and the rest of the world are entering entirely uncharted territory with a wounded but ever more determined Vladimir Putin in charge.