Vacancies Filled

But is Tim Walz the right pick? And what about Yahya Sinwar ?

In 1976 Gerald Ford after winning the nomination over Ronald Reagan at the GOP convention, invited the latter on stage for a short impromptu speech. It completely changed the energy in the hall. As Reagan’s biographer so succinctly said afterwards, the entire convention suddenly realized: ‘we picked the wrong guy’. I could not help thinking exactly the same thing when I saw this last night:

Yes, Kamala Harris had to make a choice between Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and she went with the latter. There was a lot of chatter over the past few weeks about how Shapiro’s Jewish background and stint in and support for Israel as a young man would negatively affect his chances, the Democrats now have a potent and sizeable anti-Israel contingent. Yes, the days of Joe Lieberman, Al Gore’s running mate in 2000 who died earlier this year, are long over.

But the choice for Walz was not so much about excluding a Jew from the platform although it did play a role. No, the Democrats needed someone who could stand in Kamala’s shadow, someone who would not make it overly clear that she is still a relative political lightweight to enter the White House. Just ask yourself how Shapiro would have energized the Democratic ticket and how in doing so he would also have put to spotlight on himself as a centrist governor with the right mix of capabilities to become president. Tim Walz is different and is not offering the moderation that Shapiro had on offer, yes it is a turn leftwards and it is not balancing the ticket. What Walz will do as a mid-western man with a track record however is to take the battle right into JD Vance territory when it comes to solicit low income voters in the swing states. His twelve years in congress no doubt contributed to Nancy Pelosi pushing him forward onto the ticket and it also brings some extra Washington know-how. The one risky aspect is that Minnesota is already a Democratic stronghold with less electoral college votes than Shapiro’s Pennsylvania and that is now one of the states where the battle will get really interesting.

There was a lot of excitement last night after the Harris-Walz launch event and poll numbers have given the Democrats a decent lift with a lot of key states in a statistical tie. Still, the Walz pick is a political gamble and may alienate independent voters in the centre. It will also give the Trump campaign a lot of material to wage a solid counter effort as JD Vance grows into his role. We have three full months to go to election day and expect it to be a wild ride.

An important pick was made yesterday by another organization that has been dominating the news, Hamas. Following the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran last week there was a vacancy at the top of the terrorist group governing Gaza. Despite my early inkling that Khalid Meshaal would be brought back, the reigns have passed on to the mastermind behind October 7th, Gaza commander Yahya Sinwar. He has been analyzed in detail over the past ten months so I will not bore you with his adventures in an Israeli prison and his pathological appetite for torture and murder, of which his own fellow Arabs are equally victims on a daily basis.

Suffice it to say that this could indeed be the nail in the Hamas coffin. There is no political leadership of note based outside Gaza, in fact the separation between political and military leadership is gone now. The remnant of Hamas leadership hiding in Gaza where its hold on the remaining Israeli hostages - some of whom are said to be physically surrounding Sinwar’s tunnel location - is probably the last card they have to play in order to postpone the fate of being defeated and killed in their bunkers. There literally is no way out any longer and Sinwar’s ascension is basically the choice to go down as martyrs without having any future stake in whatever peace process might unfold. It’s over for them.

And while Israel and the world were bracing for an Iranian attack - as of this writing not much has happened - the hostage negotiations are once more stalled. There are two trains of thought here and one is that Hamas is indeed at the end of its rope and has to make a deal in order to buy time and avoid its ultimate destruction. The killing of Haniyeh had no impact here the argument goes, in fact it could help spur Hamas to make a move and accept a lifeline. The other one recognizes Hamas’ position, but it argues it has nothing more to lose and thus there simply is actually no point for them to negotiate any deal, no matter what Israel puts on the table. They might as well keep fighting and take with them as many hostages as they can. With Sinwar holding the reins now we have to be prepared for the bleakest of scenarios.

We should also recognize that progress has been frustrated by Nethanyahu inserting last minute demands effectively ensuring there is no deal to be had. There is a reported rift between the prime minister and the military and intelligence chiefs that have been conducting negotiations. It’s unclear where things are headed on that front.

On the day we mark ten months since the horrendous October 7th attacks we are still a long way away from a resolution here. Today Israeli doctors released a research report on the hostages that were released after 50 days of captivity in November. It is a depressing and heartbreaking report. Imagine what it looks like for those that are still there.