Transformative

Trump sweeps the election and stages an incredible comeback, the Democrats need to redefine themselves in a changed world

The results are a far cry from the marginal win he eked out in 2016. Capturing the electoral college, the popular vote, the Senate and quite possibly the House of Representatives is an incredible sweep. The forty-fifth president wasn’t accidental or incidental; by becoming the forty-seventh president he will solidify the Trump agenda and transform America and the world.

The electorate wasn’t swayed by the media, newspaper and editorial endorsements or all the polls (which were off again), but it can be argued that internet personalities like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan have their hands on far more powerful levers of influence. Now that is also deeply transformative. Americans have taken a different route and are increasingly adopting newer channels to navigate it all. Trump spotted the changed dynamics and sealed the deal last night. To be frank, the scope of his win surprised even me.

Also, someone who has had a mixed first term, was impeached, tried and convicted, lost re-election and also had the best funded media and establishment apparatus to contend with, at age seventy-eight, staged a remarkable comeback. I always felt that Reagan in 1980 pulled off such a feat to get into the White House a month shy of his seventieth birthday, Trump is now the oldest president ever to be elected to the highest office in the land. And it doesn’t show, does it? He addressed his supporters at 3AM Florida time after weeks of campaigning and dancing to the tunes of YMCA. He speeches for hours on end. He’s unstoppable. Whether you like the man or not, it is nothing short of extraordinary and it will inspire a generation of young Americans.

To discuss what is next is a longer post. But on a high level a few things to note:

• Trump is way more organized and staffed than in 2016. He will come to Washington prepared with a team of like-minded souls to get to work fast;

• It is key to see who will be in his cabinet, the confirmation process of which will be so much easier now that he has control of the Senate (no lengthy hearings);

• There is a big item list to go through and he made it clear last night that he will keep his promises. That said, even with the majorities he has, there is only so much you can do in terms of immigration, the economy, healthcare etc. Time is a constraint and so will institutional and legal barriers. Change yes, a revolution, no.

• Trump inherits a record high stock market and a rolling economy. From that perspective he can only wreck it, in particular with the planned tariffs and expected deficit increases. It will require rare economic and political genius to keep this on track and avoid a cooler economy and/or potential financial crises.

• Yes, there is a social paragraph and abortion is part of it. My oldest daughter raised the alarm texting me early this morning. My take: it was not a priority for the electorate based on exit polls and Trump has many other things on his list. Expect status quo and the issue be left to the states, there is zero political capital to do anything else right now.

• Global affairs: yes, the avalanche of tweets out of Europe last night spoke volumes. They and the rest of the world are not ready for a changed America. But remember: Trump hates wars and loves money. That will start to inform America’s new global agenda. Israel be aware, he may not be the friend you thought you had.

Harris lost that much is clear. The foundational issue in my mind is the Democrats’ utter inability to arrange a decent and organized succession. Joe Biden was the dead-on favourite in 2016 and he would have beaten Trump then, most probably changing the course of history. But he was pushed aside for Hillary Clinton. So Biden returned only in the 2020 election, but was too old really and only a one-term stint would realistically work. His job was to beat Trump and he had successfully completed that task.

Any sane person saw exactly how a ‘one-term Joe’ would work four years ago, unfortunately the Democratic establishment saw it differently and doubled down on the aging man from Scranton. And everyone, notably the media, bought into the lie that he was ‘sharp as a tack’ and the one person to defeat Trump. Until it all came apart and Harris was recruited to save a campaign over the summer which, looking back now, was already in deep peril.

Harris was untested by a primary. Even Trump had to run and fight for it and defeat DeSantis and Haley. It made him sharper and better prepared for a changed landscape and he was able to connect with voters all across America and he spent the better part of the past two years doing that. Harris had none of those benefits and she certainly did not have the time. She was woefully unprepared, thrown to the wolves and incapable of turning the tide. Voters spot this, see this, even feel this and vote accordingly.

One of the architects of the chaos that is now the Democratic Party is Barack Obama. He ensconced himself in Washington a number of years ago as a power behind the throne, a move that in and by itself is totally outside of American constitutional good practice. It created a weird power dynamic, like who is in charge, and the fruits are evident. Disconnected from a changing electorate, underestimating the strength of Trump among traditional Democratic voters like Latinos, blacks and union members while banking on old style campaigns with billions of dollars, advisors and celebrities, it all failed. The only man that could have put a bit of a shine on the Democrat performance, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, wisely stepped aside.

As indicated before, it will be upon him and others to recast and redefine the post-Pelosi, post-Obama, post-Schumer party. In that they will struggle where all left-leaning parties in the world are finding hard times: how can we craft a compelling message in a transformed environment. If you are up against an old conservative guy who has just forged a new, young and diverse alignment of voters you are up against something unprecedented and old tricks will no longer suffice. Change my friends. In Washington and everywhere else.