The Widening War

A shifting landscape in both the Middle East and Europe

Iran, Lebanon, Israel

For all the attention given to the recent UN ceasefire resolutions, it may be time to look at another UN resolution that is hardly getting any. In 2006 the UN adopted Resolution 1701 which basically sought to end the Hezbollah-Israel war by demilitarizing a large area of land in South Lebanon, usually referred to as the area ‘south of the Litani River’. While the ceasefire itself took hold, Hezbollah failed to live up to what the resolution said about it laying down its arms in this area and no one has bothered to enforce it since then. And yes, we are talking about the strip of land which since October 7th has been the staging ground for Hezbollah to launch direct attacks on Israel. The resulting hostilities - which never became a full war - have in addition to rising casualty numbers on both sides, displaced some 80,000 Israelis as well as some 100,000 Lebanese north of the border. And entire region straddling two nations is crippled and desperate.

This situation has of course been a distraction for Israel’s military which is fighting in Gaza and it also has seriously impacted Israel’s economy. What is far more alarming is that Hezbollah’s weapon arsenal, in particular its estimated 150,000 rockets are, thanks to Iran’s help, of an altogether different quality and quantity than what Hamas has had on offer so far. An organized attack on Israel proper, taking out utilities and other strategic assets, would seriously endanger Israel and lead to an all-out war in the north. At that point Israel could and would unleash whatever it has at its disposal, drawing in Iran and destabilize the entire region.

And that is exactly why Israel has stepped up its efforts to actively dissuade Hezbollah from further attacks and has made that very clear in multiple communications: if you are working against us, you’re a target. Last Saturday that happened and Israel hit a building adjacent to Iran’s embassy in Damascus taking out among others the highest ranking Iranian military officer in Lebanon and Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi. This is both a coup for Israel and also the accelerant everyone had been fearing: Iran has now promised revenge.

There are two things at play here. First, Israel has no options when it comes to being challenged sovereignty over its north: its domestic refugees need to return. For that it will have to neutralize the ever present threat that is housed between its border and the Litani river. It is now pre-emptively raising the stakes by taking out high value targets as both a warning and a deterrent. Secondly, in the meantime Israel is winning the war in Gaza, one step at a time. We know this as the final Rafah assault is being planned out in close consultation with Washington which is sending more arms to Israel (despite all the political games of the past two weeks). A destruction of Hamas is not something that Iran can let pass and together with a northern stalemate or loss of Hezbollah it would mean a phenomenal win for Israel. So Hezbollah and Iran may well ramp up hostilities before there is an Israel with more military resources and a Gaza win under its belt.

Is this a realistic scenario? Could there be a diplomatic effort to stave off such a dramatic escalation? One would hope, but the lesson of October 7th is that these negotiated stalemates with terror groups and similar regimes are nothing more than buying time. The nuclear deal that America concluded with Iran was similar: kicking the can down the road. At this point in time the parties have clearly stated goals and it may be too late for them to back off.

And Europe

But if you think an ever growing war is confined to the Middle East, consider the following. The summer is upon us and rather than last year’s Ukrainian offensive it is now the Russians who have started to ramp up their efforts considerably. No longer a ‘special military operation’, Putin now refers to actual war, and we have seen an increasing number of attacks recently, in particular aimed at taking out Ukraine’s power grid with some measure of success. Simultaneously the actual language around the conflict is increasingly framed as one between Russia and NATO with one of Putin’s key partners pointing out how NATO is now operating in Ukraine.

It is this dynamic that prompted the current Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, Rob Bauer, to last week point out that the alliance - celebrating its 75th anniversary tomorrow - is woefully unprepared for a war with Russia. In saying this he referred to May 10, 1940 when a very complacent Western Europe was steamrolled by Hitler in a matter of weeks. Bauer’s point was that the alliance’s partners need to get ready not so much for a similar invasion, but of a potentially wider conflict where the enemy may use different means to further its goals. And that means anything to drive a wedge between the nations that support Ukraine, from disinformation to sabotage to covert operations anywhere in Europe. Much as we learned from Hamas and Hezbollah’s stated intentions and tactics, we can no longer look away and realize the same when it comes to Russia.

So ?

So I put these two conflicts next to one another with a purpose. On the one hand Russia is affiliated with and supportive of Iran and they interact. These conflicts feed off each other and it is such a multi-faceted dynamic that it is hard to predict what’s next. On the other hand what we see in each war is a rapid acceleration of events over which the larger players (UN, US, possibly China too) have less and less control, certainly not the influence that they once might have had. UN resolutions are merely tools for political signalling and no longer impact the situation on the ground. And: the US and China may be drawn into these widening conflicts on opposing sides, in Europe and the Middle East.

Widening wars: we are in a spot where things are dangerous and outcomes hard to predict.

Photo: the Israeli-Lebanese border at Rosh Hanikra, from the Dorsman archives (2010).