The Predicament

The Iran-Israel conflict has entered an uncertain and unhelpful stalemate

With all the rapid developments and sometimes murky reports, it is not always possible to be complete, so yesterday I added a comment to my post that Saudi Arabia had also played a part in the defence of Israel. Today the Saudis themselves confirmed that, the United Arab Emirates were part of the collaboration too. Make no mistake, this is a watershed moment in Middle East history with global implications. Together with Jordan, the US and the USA there is now an Arab-Western coalition in place that is backing up Israel. It will also be a building block for Israel’s security once the West retreats which is not an unlikely scenario. It may even be the opportunity we could not see on October 7th, but which we intuitively understood was there: an Israel that is part of a moderate Muslim world.

But that also means that Israel can no longer just go it alone and strike ad-hoc alliances. Once you are partnered up, you will have to listen what others in the group think and feel and come up with a course of action that everyone is on board with. Yes, Israel has every right to respond and attack Iran, and yes the goal should continue to be to take down the regime in Tehran for good. This is the only viable solution for the current predicament. But it will not happen right away and here is why.

Joe Biden can, in an election year, not let the US slide into a war with Iran, nor can he ignore the signals from the Saudis and the Jordanians. Both of them share their extreme dislike of Iran, but they also both have a restive population that is still looking at the world through a pro-Palestine and anti-Israel lens. It is a very difficult balancing act: yes we are happy to help, but not too close to Israel and not ready to be dragged into a full out war with Iran just yet.

An Israeli reader alerted me to the fact that enabling a Biden re-election is essential as a Trump presidency would seriously destabilize the world order. To avoid that it is a priority now to support Biden and so the request for Israel to hold back does have long term merits. It is a reality that has sunk into the Nethanyahu team who have reserved their next move while indicating that a reprisal ‘whenever or wherever’ is still on the table. Keep the pressure on, but do not hint at your next move.

To be clear, Israel cannot afford another front right now. Amid all the Iran action over the weekend there is significant unfinished business in Gaza and a deal for the hostages (now estimated at 97 alive and 36 deceased in captivity) is further away than ever.

Yes, we can agree with Michael Oren and Melanie Phillips that Israel has to respond and that the longer we wait the quicker Iran will progress its nuclear capabilities. Pausing now however does not mean stopping. And I do disagree with the useful idiots on our TV screens who proclaim that Iran’s attack was ‘performative’ and calibrated to not kill anyone (yes heard that on public Dutch TV). No one should be fooled by that, Iran continues to be a clear and lethal danger and we need to treat it accordingly: no more peace and nuclear deals. Pressure, sanctions and a real effort to find a route to end it all.

What is noteworthy though is that Iran’s attack has woken up many leaders, politicians and journalists who until now for some mysterious reason have been staring at Hamas and Hezbollah as the only sources of Middle East disruption, next to Israel of course. The missiles hurtled in Israel’s direction straight from Tehran has given pause for thought and it hopefully forces a rethink on Middle East politics which is overdue. It is therefore wise to assess the current state of affairs as a short stalemate where regional and global interests have hit a temporary pause button when it comes Iran. It doesn’t help right now, but then again things may change at any given moment. That too is the Middle East.

Photo: remains of Iranian missile found in Iraq. Israel’s senior military leadership meeting over the weekend.