Don't. Yet they did.

But Iran's attack on Israel falls flat in more ways than one

The entire world was fully up to speed of what was about to go down and was holding its breath. Behind the scenes Israel’s armed forces where fully prepped and while Biden tried to stave off the attack by saying the now famous words “don’t”, they did. Iran last night launched around 330 drones and missiles in Israel’s direction, of which 99% were intercepted by Israel with support from US, UK and Jordanian forces. Yes, that’s correct, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan worked alongside Israel to thwart this brazen assault. The damage was limited based on reports so far, one seriously wounded Bedouin girl in Israel and some lightly injured, material damage here and there, but that was about it. The iron dome defence system also prevented damage to the West Bank and Jerusalem, Iran was apparently perilously close to hitting the Al-Aqsa mosque.

So from the perspective of dealing out a painful reprisal to Israel (for its attack on Iranian military officers in Damascus) this massive attack fell flat which is a relief for not just Israel, but the entire world as it translates into a possibly more muted response, but more on that later. The other key thing is that an international coalition worked together quickly with a number of Arab states lining up behind Israel. It proves the thesis that the Middle East is getting more and more aligned to act against Iran’s aggression which has been the root of the region’s instability.

Let’s not forget of what Iran is. One of the most brutal dictatorships in the world which routinely rapes, tortures and murders its own citizens, sent murder squads after Salman Rushdie, bombed Jewish targets around the world, destroyed the civic fabric of Lebanon and was the key support for Hamas in prepping the October 7th attacks. And that is just a sampling. Iran’s long term goals are not in helping out to create a Palestinian state, no, Hamas is only a useful tool in its grand strategy to transform the Middle East and mirror it in the image of Iran. It’s a religious war. And as with all dictatorships that launch aggressive wars, it will be the beginning of the end for the mullahs in Tehran. Just witness the reactions of the Iranian community around the world, making it so clear that the people of Iran are not at war with Israel. It is a regime that has no legitimate basis, that will become ever more isolated and therefore will crumble, eventually. The military ineptness last night is just a symptom of its inherent weakness. More will come.

But how fast? Putin bounced back after the initial setbacks when he attacked Ukraine, Saddam Hussein held on for another 13 violent years after his ill fated invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The Iranian regime is strong enough to remain a player for a long time to come unless the international solidarity of last night is converted to more active engagement and isolation while supporting the people Iran.

The US is now restraining Israel from a response as expected, with the argument that no real damage was done in the attack and that Israel won the battle this weekend. While a sensible response to contain the conflict, it is again kicking the can down the road because even given this win for Israel, the threat is far from gone. Iran will continue to use its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis and is now also for the first time directly engaging. There will be a next time and it will use its large arsenal of options to undermine Israel and its supporting nations where possible. It predictably lost this attempt, but it will try again. Israel won the battle, but the war may only be starting and it will be a long one.

One more observation: the nations and politicians across the world that were so keen to put a weapons embargo on Israel have now witnessed why support for Israel is crucial. Can you picture the casualties and damage if Israel’s defence systems had been impaired? It is for shame that countries like Canada - although its arms exports to Israel are minimal - made a political move to undermine a democracy faced with such attacks. We can only hope that common sense prevails and that Israel can benefit from more tangible support while a drastic approach to deal with Iran gets organized, structured and is given the legs to neutralize the source of this conflict.

More in the days ahead.