We've seen the effects on nations when their currencies devalue (referencing non-hard currency nations like Venezuela). It brings dramatic inflation, violence, the limitation of movement, change in leaderships to strong-men leaders (democratically or non-democratically elected), etc. I think if there is a similar move in hard currencies (i.e. rapid devaluation), we'll probably see the same, with the effects amplified 10x fold.
I think the difference between hard currency nations (US, Euro, Japan) versus non-hard currency nations (besides wealth, productivity, GDP, etc.) is the essence of how things are moderated between internal institutions (i.e. from Canada post to Loblaws to the constitution to the fire & police department, schools, Nike, Google, etc.). These internal institutions are akin to pillars of society, that upholds free speech to the fabric of society, trust, reliability, dependency, perception of stability, sanity, etc. If that breaks down (devaluation of currency being the catalytic moment), then I would want to be as far away from big cities as possible and would wish our kids were the head of gangs/mafias/triads instead of banks/engineer firms/etc.. If that is the case, I think classic doomsday hedges are the best bet, which includes gold, silver, etc. to other types of commodities and things like access to sustainable freshwater, etc.
Either way, I personally don't think the pendulum will swing that far to the right (or left). So my economic bets NOW would be the typical hedges. Also, bets on dislocation of value through equity or bonds or even FX.
However, I think the QE that is going on, be it through lower interest rates to the printing of cash is a disturbing policy as that exaggerates asset prices, widens the rich/poor gap, limits the channel for wealth creation to creating zombie companies.
Aside from just economic bets, what I would like to see/invest, are companies that continue to strengthen the existing internal institutions. Maybe not just strengthen, but to better them. To make it more inclusive. To make society more inclusive, so that each community in itself, is an internal institution that upholds the fabric of society. I've seen so many companies being funded now, that are just about users. I have people asking me to buy into Bytedance at $50bn USD. Bytedance is so big that FB had to clone it with Lasso (now shut down) and add resources to further apps that are, arguably by some, weakening the internal institutions by playing to our emotions, rather than to our brains.
We all have a part, to fund startups to established enterprises, that are strengthening society as a whole (and not just to the wallets of some). Continue the mechanism of having governments that can change with society through peaceful means (i.e. voting) and peaceful channels (i.e. civic engagement). Continue to stabilize mandatory institutions to make them dependable, enriching trust rather than distrust. Make sustainable changes to society that can be far-reaching and endure generations.
With that, I'll read Shriver's book because I too need a reminder that there is one instance, of a parallel universe, where Shriver's book is reality.
Another part of this is to think through the long term implications of demographic change. Japan gives a good sense of one of the possible paths, and they have done some things very well (restructuring the economy to own critical high value value points in supply chains) and other things poorly (huge investments in infrastructure not needed by an evolving economy and politicians and industry leaders resisting necessary reforms). China will go through a dramatic demographic transition over the next 100 years that will bring population down to 400-600 million people. The same is true, on a slowe timeline, of India. Canada and the US can mute this, for a while, through immigration, but not forever. Anyone with long term responsibilities needs to be thinking out the different ways this could play out.
We've seen the effects on nations when their currencies devalue (referencing non-hard currency nations like Venezuela). It brings dramatic inflation, violence, the limitation of movement, change in leaderships to strong-men leaders (democratically or non-democratically elected), etc. I think if there is a similar move in hard currencies (i.e. rapid devaluation), we'll probably see the same, with the effects amplified 10x fold.
I think the difference between hard currency nations (US, Euro, Japan) versus non-hard currency nations (besides wealth, productivity, GDP, etc.) is the essence of how things are moderated between internal institutions (i.e. from Canada post to Loblaws to the constitution to the fire & police department, schools, Nike, Google, etc.). These internal institutions are akin to pillars of society, that upholds free speech to the fabric of society, trust, reliability, dependency, perception of stability, sanity, etc. If that breaks down (devaluation of currency being the catalytic moment), then I would want to be as far away from big cities as possible and would wish our kids were the head of gangs/mafias/triads instead of banks/engineer firms/etc.. If that is the case, I think classic doomsday hedges are the best bet, which includes gold, silver, etc. to other types of commodities and things like access to sustainable freshwater, etc.
Either way, I personally don't think the pendulum will swing that far to the right (or left). So my economic bets NOW would be the typical hedges. Also, bets on dislocation of value through equity or bonds or even FX.
However, I think the QE that is going on, be it through lower interest rates to the printing of cash is a disturbing policy as that exaggerates asset prices, widens the rich/poor gap, limits the channel for wealth creation to creating zombie companies.
Aside from just economic bets, what I would like to see/invest, are companies that continue to strengthen the existing internal institutions. Maybe not just strengthen, but to better them. To make it more inclusive. To make society more inclusive, so that each community in itself, is an internal institution that upholds the fabric of society. I've seen so many companies being funded now, that are just about users. I have people asking me to buy into Bytedance at $50bn USD. Bytedance is so big that FB had to clone it with Lasso (now shut down) and add resources to further apps that are, arguably by some, weakening the internal institutions by playing to our emotions, rather than to our brains.
We all have a part, to fund startups to established enterprises, that are strengthening society as a whole (and not just to the wallets of some). Continue the mechanism of having governments that can change with society through peaceful means (i.e. voting) and peaceful channels (i.e. civic engagement). Continue to stabilize mandatory institutions to make them dependable, enriching trust rather than distrust. Make sustainable changes to society that can be far-reaching and endure generations.
With that, I'll read Shriver's book because I too need a reminder that there is one instance, of a parallel universe, where Shriver's book is reality.
Another part of this is to think through the long term implications of demographic change. Japan gives a good sense of one of the possible paths, and they have done some things very well (restructuring the economy to own critical high value value points in supply chains) and other things poorly (huge investments in infrastructure not needed by an evolving economy and politicians and industry leaders resisting necessary reforms). China will go through a dramatic demographic transition over the next 100 years that will bring population down to 400-600 million people. The same is true, on a slowe timeline, of India. Canada and the US can mute this, for a while, through immigration, but not forever. Anyone with long term responsibilities needs to be thinking out the different ways this could play out.