The Inevitable: Counter Attacks

Western allies make a move in Yemen plus Hostages front and centre on 100th day

So it all happened late last week. US and UK forces (supported by Canada, Netherlands, Australia and Bahrain) attacked a series of targets in Houthi controlled areas in Yemen. Why? Ever since the start of the war on October 7th, the Houthi forces (who control a large chunk of Yemen following the civil war there) have been attacking international maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Most ships that go through the narrow seaway that separates Yemen from Africa are going either to Eilat in Israel or, more crucially, to Europe through the Suez canal in Egypt. Any major disruptions will have a big impact on an already struggling global economy, lots of oil and some 30% of world container shipping actually flows through the Suez canal. An example: Tesla in Germany had to pause production recently as a result of delayed parts.

Why are the Houthis doing this? The Houthis are like Hamas and Hezbollah, terrorist organizations with a deeply Islamic philosophy and they benefit from the largesse of Iran to further their agenda in destabilizing the Middle East. Like Hezbollah and Iran they are Shia, as opposed to Hamas who are Sunni Muslims. Until the ceasefire in 2022, the Houthis fought a war with neighbouring Sunni Saudi Arabia which produced mass casualties in particular on the civilian side in Yemen. It has been relatively quiet since in Yemen and the attacks on international ships brings the Houthi group back to relevance and global headlines. But not only that, the disruptive actions it has unleashed may well serve to put pressure on the US in particular: it is a message to get Biden to reduce his support for Israel.

Why is the West responding? Simply put: the West has always been responding to serious disruptions to naval shipping lanes and the missile and drone attacks from the Houthi’s side were becoming too many and too frequent over the past few weeks. And not only that, a US naval vessel was targeted directly and it is this that likely set off the chain of events we witnessed last week. An increasing nuisance had to be removed and put back in its place. A move like that however is not exactly risk-free.

What are the risks? The last thing Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak need in an election year for both is a full scale war in the Middle East with increasing US and UK involvement. It could bring Iran into the conflict with a direct confrontation with the US and things could potentially also spill over into Saudi Arabia. And think about terror cells active in Western Europe and North America which could be activated at a moment’s notice.

Now the Houthis are not a terribly well-functioning army, but they have one resourceful backer: Iran. The latter loves to see the disruption by engaging the US, but may also take the view that the real target for the Houthis should be Saudi Arabia, not so much the US. Even Tehran may be apprehensive to see a direct military engagement with Western forces. But yes, the US and others could potentially go after Iran, something that by the way should have been done long ago in order to roll back the three ‘Hs’: Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis.

So given the acceleration of the Houthi attacks the counter attack last week was inevitable. At the same time we just don’t know where things will go from here. Both the US and Iran may step back from the brink to avoid a direct clash between the two and let the situation calm down.

In any case, the weekend brought out the usual pro-Palestinian protestors and they have now added these attacks as a grievance to their repertoire and they ‘support Yemen’. Note: they were nowhere to be seen when the civil war there turned into a massive humanitarian crisis, think of it as a 10X in terms of death and wounded compared to Gaza.

Hostages

Talking about protests: it was cold here in Vancouver yesterday, but a decent crowd turned up to call for action and reflect on the 100th day since October 7th. Not sure if it was the sad milestone or the moving speeches, but it was an emotional event.

On the way back home we got the news that Hamas had released a video with three hostages: Noa Argamani, Yossi Sharabi, and Itay Svirsky. Sadly Hamas is using an extreme form of mental torture as a second instalment today turns the information release in a guessing game: who do you think is still alive? It seems that the more attention is given to the hostages, the crueller the Hamas games become. But what then, should we all be quiet and act as if nothing is happening?