The Fear Election

Canada gives into its angst and opts for continued uncertainty with a split parliament

So the people of Canada have spoken and they have, based on the results as of this writing, handed a minority government to the incumbent Liberals who are again dependent on third party support to pass legislation. The opposing Conservatives did well and gained tremendously in adding seats and getting a record percentage of the popular vote, but so did the Liberals. The move to the two largest parties came largely at the expense of the left-leaning New Democrats (NDP) who lost big and they also lost their leader, Jagmeet Singh. But, and here is the irony, another party leader also got whacked: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat and is therefore not able to sit in parliament. It is as of yet unclear what that will mean for him and his party, but the sharks will have smelled blood and there may be a leadership challenge at some point soon.

It has been rehashed a number of times, but in polls earlier this year the Conservatives commanded a royal 20-point lead over Trudeau’s disastrously unpopular Liberal Party. Too much debt, immigration worries, crime, free speech on the internet, pandemic, but also downplaying national pride and casting Canada as a colonial settler state were huge contributors to this potential electoral wipe-out. But if there is ever a ruthless and smart power machine in the Western world it is Canada’s Liberal Party. With the advent of Trump and his tariffs it all of sudden embraced the nationalism it once rejected and cleverly moved Mark Carney into the leadership position as the saviour of the nation. Canadians, many of whom have an innate fear of their southern neighbour, bought into this intimidated as they were by the endless missives from the White House about their country becoming America’s 51st state. Carney would and could be the only person to deal with this threat. The election polls flipped instantly and things all of a sudden looked very bright for the Liberals.

The Conservatives lacked a solid answer, their entire campaign was built on dismantling the abysmal Trudeau record and their leader Poilievre was not agile enough to pivot and deal with the changed dynamics. The narrative - helpfully propagated by the state-owned CBC and other media - of the Conservatives being Trumpian or ‘MAGA North’ put an ever deeper scare into Canadians and it all coalesced into a decent win for Carney and his Liberals last night.

That said, the Conservatives booked their best result in terms of a popular vote since 1988 and managed to break into traditionally progressive strongholds such as Vancouver Island and the Greater Toronto metro area. For all his perceived faults in the campaign, Poilievre built a younger and multicultural alliance of voters across Canada and that may bode very well for the party if Canada has to return to the polls in the near future.

So what now? As discussed here before there is little in the way of a new direction for Canada (in parliament the Liberals will again rely on the leftish NDP for support) other than dealing on an immediate basis with the economic challenges. It will most likely involve more spending, and some tax cuts which will add to Canada’s ever spiralling debt and deficits which in turn will drive up inflation, the one issue all Canadians are unified and concerned about. Other than that it is expected that Carney will initially carry on with most of Trudeau’s policies, the agenda and the people have not really changed all that much.

So if not much will change there is also ground to believe that the government’s negative stance on Israel and the rampant antisemitism that has hit the streets will remain unaddressed for the foreseeable future. The Liberal MP in my riding got re-elected with his name still firmly on the ‘Vote Palestine’ list, a platform that is not about constructive criticism, but which hits all the buttons that the anti-Israel crowd loves and which seeks to ultimately delegitimize Israel. It has taken me a lot of effort to explain to many here how the corrosive force antisemitism is accelerated by leaders who go too far in their Israel criticism and who often stand by idly once this odious strain of hate hits the streets. A number of anti-Israel parliamentarians from the NDP party have lost their seats, as has for instance the Jewish Liberal MP Yaara Saks who subordinated some of her better instincts for the good of the party. Let’s see how this plays out in the months ahead.

So if things do not materially change because Carney is too focused on the ‘Trump file’ it stands to reason that the mandate he will enjoy will be rather short lived. There is a host of other issues that deserve immediate attention - housing is one - and Carney may struggle to prioritize and find the necessary support in parliament to pass legislation in key areas. And if he does there may be a heavy fiscal price to pay.

Fear of Trump and an impending economic disaster enabled Carney and the Liberals to once more grasp power in Ottawa. But Canadians are equally fearful of their wallet and Carney may soon come after it if and when the costly plans to revive the economy need to be funded. The Liberals have now failed to secure a majority in three consecutive elections while the Conservatives have, although not winning, steadily built up their base while the smaller parties on the left and right have crumbled. Carney’s honeymoon will be short, after that anything is possible.