That Speech

Vance riles Europe as Germany heads into elections. And some hostage news

Maybe I dropped the Europe, Alone update last week too soon as at that very moment JD Vance was wrapping up his now much debated speech in Munich. It was another bombshell for the already somewhat confused European political landscape following Defence Secretary Hegseth’s comments on a US brokered deal for Ukraine earlier in the week. The thrust of the Vice President’s words were that Europe was dealing with its own home made crisis - too much immigration - and that its attempts to suppress criticism by limiting free speech and marginalizing alternative voices was undermining European democracy. It wasn’t quite what people were expecting, it was after all a security conference.

The reactions were all over the map, but the European ones in particular were ones of anger and disappointment over the blunt reality check that Vance put on the table. The chairman of the conference, Christopher Heusgen, was so rattled that he ended the event in tears. It apparently really hit a nerve and that maybe says a lot more than what Vance actually said. Let’s do some analysis here.

Did Vance’s speech make sense? Yes it did. It was not nearly as far-fetched or groundbreaking as some would have us believe as he touched on fairly familiar themes. A lot of what Vance put forward is in line with all the other messaging that is coming out of the Trump administration. That said, the deeper message about democracy and freedom of speech was couched in a sort of staccato social media language, you could almost feel Musk’s hand in it. And some of the examples he used, like Scotland making prayer in the confines of your own home illegal was questionable, one simple Google search clarified that. So maybe Vance’s speechwriters could have used some better researched material and arguably a bit of diplomatic polish.

So does Vance have point? Again yes. But you have to listen carefully to Vance’s pitch which few commentators did. He explicitly pointed out that the US and Europe are on the same team and that both have a vested interest in defending the values of freedom and democracy. What he did do is to make the in Europe often misunderstood point that the US Constitution gives far more room to freedom of speech and that is the fundamental building block of democracies. He went on to argue that the unelected European Union bureaucracy may not be the best defender of those fundamental rights.

Vance also makes a human, almost emotional, plea to make his audience understand that unregulated immigration has an impact on communities and that Europe’s and America’s citizens care about this and want to be heard. By focussing on immigration and disoriented politicians as an internal threat, Vance may have missed that the external threats are equally grave. Russia is not just a military threat but equally influencing and disrupting Europe and the US on the very social media that Vance champions. He could have used a bit more context, but the message of the VP stands.

What’s next? Again, the US and Europe (and Canada) remain on the same team and Vance made that clear. The wakeup call he launched in Munich fits into the Trump narrative and approach. The words rip into the audience, but things are slowly mitigated, even the much contested way in which a Ukraine deal is supposed to come about is being walked back. But as of today Europe is on it in terms of defence planning and Ukraine, an emergency summit is on its way in Paris as I write this. So Vance’s speech was maybe that much needed wakeup call after all.

The timing of all of it is significant. This coming Sunday there are federal elections in Germany. The powerhouse of postwar Europe is under serious pressure. A lack of innovation and the end of affordable energy out of Russia has turned the once economic powerhouse of Europe into an economic laggard, some sort of an economic problem child of the old continent. Add to that the immigration woes, compounded by numerous recent horrendous knife attacks on innocent German citizens by radicalized Muslims and you have all the ingredients for an election that will upset the established order. More on that in the week to come.

Hostages

Today we mark 500 days since October 7th. On Saturday three more hostages were released. Sagui Dekel-Chen (whose third child was born while he was held by Hamas), Sasha Troufanov (whose father was murdered on October 7th, something he did not know) and Iair Horn (whose brother is still held hostage). There are 73 more hostages to go and negotiations are continuing this week in Cairo, maybe also in Qatar.

There is a of lot press coverage on the hostages that have been released so far and in particular about how they are picking up their lives. There is too much to share, but the photo of Israel’s outgoing IDF Chief, Halevi, and the four who were unarmed ‘lookouts’ or ‘spotters’ on the Gaza border on October 7th is a defining one and should have been on every front cover imaginable. Here are the young women whose warnings of suspicious activity along the Israel-Gaza border were ignored and whose reports were disregarded. For that they paid with fifteen months of mental and physical torture in captivity while twenty-two of their fellow servicewomen were murdered in front of their eyes on the base from which they were taken on October 7th. Halevi apologized and commended the women for their effort and indicated they would be part of the investigations that would seek to clarify what went amiss. It must have been a very uncomfortable meeting. Israel cannot rest and move forward until a full national inquiry of what went wrong in the lead up to that day is undertaken.

I will leave you with this short video. Released hostage Ohad Ben Ami visited a school in his neighbourhood last week after he returned home. Look at the kids, their reactions, their excitement, their eyes. It is incredibly moving and it will also tell you how the entire hostage saga is seared into Israel’s psyche and definitely that of the next generation. Israel has a bright future.

Photos: Vance in Munich. Herzi Halevi meets with Naama Levy, Agam Berger, Liri Albag and Karina Ariev. The fifth released spotter, Daniella Gilboa was not present (photo IDF).