Europe, Alone

America's move to end the Ukraine War exposes Europe and forces a new direction

This month we are three years into the devastating Ukraine War. The loss of life is staggering, adding military and civilian deaths on both sides together gets you in the neighbourhood of 1 million casualties. A majority of Ukrainians want it to end. Yet, the war has continued unabated and in a way in which neither side can win, although it stands to be reasoned that given its surplus manpower and resources Russia in the end is more likely to be victorious than Ukraine. What is even more staggering is that no conceivable options to end the war have worked: negotiating with the parties, arming Ukraine, sanctioning Russia, engineering an internal revolt deposing Putin, various peace initiatives. Nothing. The meatgrinder just kept turning. The one exception, the one potential game changer would have been to offer Ukraine the sort of firepower that would tip the scales in its favour, yet no one so far was gutsy enough to turn that option into reality. It is stuck.

Enter the new US president. Trump campaigned on getting a peace deal of sorts going and has been talking directly to both Putin and Zelensky. What followed was a flurry of activity this week with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth visiting NATO headquarters in Brussels and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (photo) visiting Kyiv while Trump worked the phones from Washington.

All of this was to be expected and fine, until Hegseth opened his mouth on Wednesday and suggested that Ukraine should not expect a NATO membership, nor a return to its pre-2014 borders with Russia. Now, there are two layers to this. First, Hegseth essentially made it clear that this has become a US-Russia negotiation with no room for any Europeans at the table. Secondly, he handed Putin a few clear wins before the discussions had even properly started. None of this was of course well received in Europe’s capitals. Zelensky found himself cornered, but Trump kept assuring him over the phone that there will be security guarantees and that could include European troops on Ukraine’s yet to be defined border with Russia.

As mentioned before, all of this is ‘modus operandi’ for team Trump: throw in some heavy language to declare your intent while confusing everyone and then walk it back a bit later. We have seen it with the tariffs, we have seen it with regards to Gaza where the ‘all hostages back by noon Saturday’ disappeared as quickly as it came. Now, what Hegseth said was maybe not as controversial as it seemed initially: he was not talking about 2022 borders which are the ones that are currently being contested, the 2014 borders (notably Crimea) were pretty much treated as a fait accompli during the Obama administration. In regards to the NATO membership there has been a debate forever, here is a long and lamentable history where Ukraine was given the runaround on the issue for decades.

In the meantime Bessent was in Ukraine to negotiate the financial aspects of the US-Ukraine relationship and rumours about Trump wanting a deal on rare earth metals from Ukraine started to swirl. Like Gaza, like DOGE, this administration is unusually motivated by saving money while pursuing long term financial opportunities and these will factor into any future settlement. Deals in Ukraine, but probably also in Russia while shifting the cost of the war to the European NATO partners: it is US domestic policy when you really think about it.

So while everyone appears to be focusing on Putin and Zelensky, the game that is being played out here is more about America’s redefined role in the newly emerging world disorder. Trump wants Europe to step up its military efforts and it is a push to get NATO members to spend 5% of their GDP (where today the average struggles to even get to 2%) on defence. This is the shining object in the room and the Europeans were given a clear message by way of Pete Hegseth. Europe is now more than ever on its own and will have to start footing the bill for the defence of not only Ukraine but itself, a point NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, has been making for quite a while now.

There is a very long way to go in getting any Ukraine-Russia settlement across the line and in meantime the war continues. And a ceasefire and deal across the current frontlines secured by European troops is hardly a win for Putin give his original objectives.

Sure, Trump’s negotiation tactics are open for discussion, but the long term objective of having Europe take care of its own problems is not an entirely crazy one. The more pertinent question is how the various players in the old continent are now going to pull this off. Unlike before, there is a lack of political leadership and unity and the real leader when it comes to defence, America, no longer wants to play a role.

Like the tariff drama the parties may yet come together following the initial verbal chaos and undiplomatic behaviour, but the trust, the once solid bond between American and Europe has been damaged. Caution will govern the next steps. This week it was not only Ukraine that was left alone, Europe a whole is now on its own. And that can only be music to Putin’s ears.

Note: a majority of Ukrainians want a negotiated settlement too (Gallup end 2024):