It took me a couple of days to get my head around this- not sure if I fully understand yet. But, my initial disagreement with the maduro thing has given way to something else. A couple of observations.
- This is a far cry from a “regime change, boots on the ground, we’ll bring democracy” type deal. Yes it is messy and opaque, welcome to the real world.
- This operation is the very visible part of a bigger war that trump is taking on. But it’s not against a specific nation as an adversary.
- The revival of the monroe doctrine lights up all of the threats to US sovereignty and security: foreign adversaries influence, narcotics warfare, ngo’s & related immigration industry, undermining of the nation state, etc. No matter who and where they are in the western hemisphere.
- Trump is very transparent in what he wants, and is not afraid to force results. And he doesn’t necessarily play by the international rules based order. Results over process. Hence the pearl clutching of many a lefty.
- Greenland will come into play soon id think. Get out the popcorn!
- Interesting one for the Canadians. Under the radar, Canada has been put on notice for their part in drug trafficing. The Globe and Mail picked up on this in their editorial.
Exactly. Nation building is over, it is all about securing and ensuring US interests. Venezuela is a test case, we are a few days into it now and it is not yet clear how the power structure in Caracas is evolving. And I am also learning that getting the oil flowing again is going to be a costly and time-consuming affair. We'll see.
The infrastructure has been utterly destroyed, neglected. Getting back to pre chavez levels will be a challenge, but it’s def a strategic goal of this admin.
What is the likely outcome of Trump's action, clearly illegal under US and international law? It seems that the Trump administration has no plan for what come next, barely even a concept for a plan.
Will US oil companies invest billions in an unstable state to get access to heavy oil with the promise that they will be first in line to loot the country down the road, once there is something worth looting?
Will a stable government emerge or will this look more like Afghanistan and Iraq?
Will the US be dragged into a major military presence or will it let Venezuela slip into chaos, possibly under a right wing autocrat more to Trump's liking? How many people will die as a result?
Will the US extend such 'policing' actions to other countries, perhaps Cuba and Columbia, then Mexico, then Brazil. How safe should Canada feel?
On the other hand, I think the idea that this somehow enables Russia or China is a bit silly. Russia has already acted, with demographics forcing its hand. It has ended up far weaker. China does not feel it needs US permission to act. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be costly, take years, will destroy the Taiwanese semiconductor industry (and put the global industry back ten years or so). But China is also under the same demographic pressure as Russia and may act within the next five years.
Fair points Steven and there is a real risk the US may get stuck into this more than is the plan today. It also depends on how effective the Venezuelan population/opposition can fill the gap now created, the army it seems is backing Maduro's VP, for now. A majority of Venezuelans did not vote for this outcome of course so there may be another round.
As for China and Russia, there are a lot of other areas where they may have interests in their respective regions. It is not enabling them as you say, it is more that they get confirmation after after confirmation from the current White House that they can go ahead as they like. They may start to push these boundaries further and further.
It seems like the Trump administration is not interested in working with the opposition and they are subscribing to magical thinking that the vice president, who is part of the problem, will somehow become their new best friend and bend to their world. This reminds me of Putin's invasion of Ukraine which was supposed to take only a few weeks.
I am not sure how much farther Russia could push the boundaries. China is the high risk case as it is under a lot of internal pressure to act while they still can and while Xi is in power. The damage to the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean economies will be catastrophic. The damage to rest of the world severe. But Xi may still think it is worth it and that this is how he wants to be known to history. Let's hope we can skate across the thin ice of the next five years.
You are correct, for Japan and South Korea we have entered a potentially dangerous phase where they need to be prepared for a number of different scenarios.
I was hoping Biden would have done this, another lost opportunity to get the Democratic party out of its feeble condition. I guess they were too busy accommodating millions of Venezuelan refugees to see the big picture.
But there is no sign so far of the relief you describe for ordinary Venezuelans. The Chavistas are still in power and Trump dismissed Machado, preposterously as lacking support.
It took me a couple of days to get my head around this- not sure if I fully understand yet. But, my initial disagreement with the maduro thing has given way to something else. A couple of observations.
- This is a far cry from a “regime change, boots on the ground, we’ll bring democracy” type deal. Yes it is messy and opaque, welcome to the real world.
- This operation is the very visible part of a bigger war that trump is taking on. But it’s not against a specific nation as an adversary.
- The revival of the monroe doctrine lights up all of the threats to US sovereignty and security: foreign adversaries influence, narcotics warfare, ngo’s & related immigration industry, undermining of the nation state, etc. No matter who and where they are in the western hemisphere.
- Trump is very transparent in what he wants, and is not afraid to force results. And he doesn’t necessarily play by the international rules based order. Results over process. Hence the pearl clutching of many a lefty.
- Greenland will come into play soon id think. Get out the popcorn!
- Interesting one for the Canadians. Under the radar, Canada has been put on notice for their part in drug trafficing. The Globe and Mail picked up on this in their editorial.
It makes for interesting times Pieter!
Exactly. Nation building is over, it is all about securing and ensuring US interests. Venezuela is a test case, we are a few days into it now and it is not yet clear how the power structure in Caracas is evolving. And I am also learning that getting the oil flowing again is going to be a costly and time-consuming affair. We'll see.
The infrastructure has been utterly destroyed, neglected. Getting back to pre chavez levels will be a challenge, but it’s def a strategic goal of this admin.
What is the likely outcome of Trump's action, clearly illegal under US and international law? It seems that the Trump administration has no plan for what come next, barely even a concept for a plan.
Will US oil companies invest billions in an unstable state to get access to heavy oil with the promise that they will be first in line to loot the country down the road, once there is something worth looting?
Will a stable government emerge or will this look more like Afghanistan and Iraq?
Will the US be dragged into a major military presence or will it let Venezuela slip into chaos, possibly under a right wing autocrat more to Trump's liking? How many people will die as a result?
Will the US extend such 'policing' actions to other countries, perhaps Cuba and Columbia, then Mexico, then Brazil. How safe should Canada feel?
On the other hand, I think the idea that this somehow enables Russia or China is a bit silly. Russia has already acted, with demographics forcing its hand. It has ended up far weaker. China does not feel it needs US permission to act. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be costly, take years, will destroy the Taiwanese semiconductor industry (and put the global industry back ten years or so). But China is also under the same demographic pressure as Russia and may act within the next five years.
Fair points Steven and there is a real risk the US may get stuck into this more than is the plan today. It also depends on how effective the Venezuelan population/opposition can fill the gap now created, the army it seems is backing Maduro's VP, for now. A majority of Venezuelans did not vote for this outcome of course so there may be another round.
As for China and Russia, there are a lot of other areas where they may have interests in their respective regions. It is not enabling them as you say, it is more that they get confirmation after after confirmation from the current White House that they can go ahead as they like. They may start to push these boundaries further and further.
It seems like the Trump administration is not interested in working with the opposition and they are subscribing to magical thinking that the vice president, who is part of the problem, will somehow become their new best friend and bend to their world. This reminds me of Putin's invasion of Ukraine which was supposed to take only a few weeks.
I am not sure how much farther Russia could push the boundaries. China is the high risk case as it is under a lot of internal pressure to act while they still can and while Xi is in power. The damage to the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean economies will be catastrophic. The damage to rest of the world severe. But Xi may still think it is worth it and that this is how he wants to be known to history. Let's hope we can skate across the thin ice of the next five years.
You are correct, for Japan and South Korea we have entered a potentially dangerous phase where they need to be prepared for a number of different scenarios.
I was hoping Biden would have done this, another lost opportunity to get the Democratic party out of its feeble condition. I guess they were too busy accommodating millions of Venezuelan refugees to see the big picture.
But there is no sign so far of the relief you describe for ordinary Venezuelans. The Chavistas are still in power and Trump dismissed Machado, preposterously as lacking support.
The chickens you are counting have yet to hatch
Venezuelan refugees flood into Colombia, destabilizing the region.
You are correct David. This was only step one of the process.
What is the process you expect to play out?