Reordering, not War
A surgical move to reassert US influence while rearranging the world order.
A first reaction: long overdue and good riddance. Removing a dictator who ignored the outcome of free elections, abused, tortured and murdered his opponents, opened the door to Iranian, Russian and Chinese presence in Latin America and who enabled vast quantities of drug being trafficked pretty much disqualifies you to enjoy a carefree and never ending reign. It was finite, the only question was when it would end. There is of course quite a bit more context to the US surgical incursion into Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. Let’s touch on the key takeaways here:
The Prerogative - America has always exercised its unique position ever since the Monroe Doctrine was established in 1823. It was just that at times it was exercised vigorously and openly and at other times it was more covert or low level. The Trump administration let it be known that it was building up to this moment very publicly. That it was done so quickly and cleanly points not only to excellent preparation but also to well organized collaboration inside the Venezuelan leadership.
The Cause - It was tempting to talk about a ‘casus belli’ here, but there is no war, not even a prolonged armed conflict, it was a precise removal of a noted regional disruptor. The argument of ‘drugs’ was presented as the direct cause, but it is safe to say that this line of arguing was really used by team Trump to wrap everything in an acceptable legal framework ending in a US court (remember how the late Manuel Noriega of Panama received a similar treatment by the elder Bush in 1989).
The less explicit motives that drove Trump can be listed as facilitating access to natural oil resources and establishing territorial dominance which encompasses a clear warning to China and Russia to stay out of America’s western hemisphere. It is also part of Trump’s immigration policy: stemming the endless tide of Venezuelan refugees, no less than 7.9 million have departed from the country so far. Lessons from the Syrian civil war have surely not gone unnoticed.
All of Trump’s motives and actions also contain a veiled warning to for instance Cuba and Colombia, possibly even left-leaning Brazil, to stay clear of the sort of adventures Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez engaged in.
The Real Winners - Ahead of the Trumpies, oil executives and whoever else stands to benefit from dispatching Maduro, the real winners are the people of Venezuela. They have suffered through twenty-six years of abuse and were forced to witness how Latin America’s wealthiest economy was reduced to rubble. We will see who will take the reins (María Corina Machado, Edmundo González, or both in some sort of co-presidency) and if the new rulers need sustained US military support, but for now Venezuelans have at least a fair shot at better times.
And no, this does not negate the MAGA theme of no more foreign wars and involvement. This targeted decapitation of the Venezuelan leadership precisely serves the Trump journey towards safer and self-sufficient Americas with the ultimate force residing in Washington, only to be used judiciously as and when the situation requires.
A New World Order - If you would take the temperature of the global reaction you will find that the theme that deals with violating ‘the international rules based order’ is dominant. Trump’s actions were illegal and defied that what took us centuries to build, or something like that. Except that it didn’t. By what international mechanism do we remove dictators like Maduro? The world was not all that interested in ousting him, on the contrary, he was treated as a friendly partner by many and indeed got the red carpet treatment at the UN where every rogue ruler can count on warm welcomes and handshakes. It is even a farther stretch to compare Russia’s four year long bloody incursion into Ukraine to what Trump carried out in Venezuela, but unfortunately many were trying to make this very argument yesterday. American-led efforts have always sought to extinguish evil threats and to insert economic interests at the same time. But now it may be done in a much different way. Trump may well have established a new benchmark in this area, a far cry from for instance the bloody removal of Salvador Allende in Chile in the early seventies.
Risks - But yes this move is of course all that Putin and Xi will need to provide the necessary justification for their adventures in Ukraine and in Taiwan. The latter in particular is now seriously exposed. Both do not compare to what happened yesterday in Caracas as these are territorial conquests that seek to extinguish independent nations and their own unique identities. But such differences will not change the mood in either Beijing or Moscow who will view these only as a matter of interpretation when it comes to exerting regional dominance.
Get ready for some more dominoes to fall in Asia and Europe. And no, this does not have to be the entry point of an all-out world war, rather this is the next phase of reordering the world. And if it is up to Trump that can be accomplished with very little bloodshed and with the benefit of long term economic rewards. For Americans. But for Venezuelans too.
Photos: Nicolás Maduro in better days, welcomed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Trump observing the operation’s progress from his residence at Mar-a-Lago in Florida:
It took me a couple of days to get my head around this- not sure if I fully understand yet. But, my initial disagreement with the maduro thing has given way to something else. A couple of observations.
- This is a far cry from a “regime change, boots on the ground, we’ll bring democracy” type deal. Yes it is messy and opaque, welcome to the real world.
- This operation is the very visible part of a bigger war that trump is taking on. But it’s not against a specific nation as an adversary.
- The revival of the monroe doctrine lights up all of the threats to US sovereignty and security: foreign adversaries influence, narcotics warfare, ngo’s & related immigration industry, undermining of the nation state, etc. No matter who and where they are in the western hemisphere.
- Trump is very transparent in what he wants, and is not afraid to force results. And he doesn’t necessarily play by the international rules based order. Results over process. Hence the pearl clutching of many a lefty.
- Greenland will come into play soon id think. Get out the popcorn!
- Interesting one for the Canadians. Under the radar, Canada has been put on notice for their part in drug trafficing. The Globe and Mail picked up on this in their editorial.
It makes for interesting times Pieter!
What is the likely outcome of Trump's action, clearly illegal under US and international law? It seems that the Trump administration has no plan for what come next, barely even a concept for a plan.
Will US oil companies invest billions in an unstable state to get access to heavy oil with the promise that they will be first in line to loot the country down the road, once there is something worth looting?
Will a stable government emerge or will this look more like Afghanistan and Iraq?
Will the US be dragged into a major military presence or will it let Venezuela slip into chaos, possibly under a right wing autocrat more to Trump's liking? How many people will die as a result?
Will the US extend such 'policing' actions to other countries, perhaps Cuba and Columbia, then Mexico, then Brazil. How safe should Canada feel?
On the other hand, I think the idea that this somehow enables Russia or China is a bit silly. Russia has already acted, with demographics forcing its hand. It has ended up far weaker. China does not feel it needs US permission to act. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be costly, take years, will destroy the Taiwanese semiconductor industry (and put the global industry back ten years or so). But China is also under the same demographic pressure as Russia and may act within the next five years.