No Hostage Deal, So Far

At Day 122 the incompatibility of Israel's two strategies is clearer than ever

There are no details on the hostage negotiations as of this writing, but we can imagine how things are going when Hamas insists that Marwan Barghouti, a convicted murderer but also a future leader of a Palestinian state, also needs to be released. Israel on the other hand would like to see for instance Romi Gonen back, a young woman who was minding her own business on a music festival four months ago. Yes, these are the stakes and the sharp differences between the parties. The remaining hostages are used as leverage to actually change the direction of a conflict with geo-political consequences that are far from trivial. It has become a drama playing itself out in Washington, Doha (Qatar), Jerusalem, Cairo, possibly all the way to Tehran. Needless to say this is lightyears from the living rooms of the Gonen and other hostage families who are on the brink after 122 days of the deepest anguish one could possibly imagine. They could not care less about the implications of a peace deal or a renewed Palestinian leadership right now. They want their loved ones back.

Amid all the reports, no one exactly knows the status of the discussions leading to a possible release, nor does anyone know what the terms of that are. All we know it does involve Israel releasing a number of Palestinian prisoners, a longer ceasefire, more support goods entering Gaza, all in return for a staged release of the hostages.

As the talks progressed with help from Qatar and Egypt over the past week, the war on the ground continued. And here too we are getting mixed reports that vary from a stalling Israeli mission to slow but sustained progress as Hamas loses terrain. Israel’s stated goals are to eliminate Hamas and ensure that all the hostages are released. But as the incompatibility of those objectives is settling in, it is becoming clearer that some in the Nethanyahu government are - without saying it directly - quite willing to continue the war at the risk of losing the hostages. In the context of long-term security this could arguably pose the least risk for Israel, but it would create a trauma that could divide Israeli society for decades. It would throw the nation into more despair as in that scenario more and more body bags would come back.

An arrangement with the stoppage of hostilities however creates an incredible level of uncertainty, in particular if the release of Palestinian prisoners includes Barghouti who, despite his bloodstained passed, is billed by some as a Palestinian Nelson Mandela. And a new leader who could lead or somehow unify Hamas and the Palestinian Authority could pave the way for peace talks and potentially a longer term settlement. This would be a win for Hamas and let’s not forget that, for Joe Biden. But it is a very toxic cocktail to serve Israel. It would be spared the painful loss of the hostages, but it would also have to give up the paramount goal of the mission, the destruction of Hamas. Look, all of this was clear on day one, but it is now at four months coming into sharp focus.

Many of you have thanked me for keeping the hostages in the picture on this newsletter. They are on my mind a lot and what I am trying to get across today is how a broader geopolitical game is being played out over these innocent people whose lives have been changed forever. Many hostages as we know have come back and their return has been far from easy. One by one they are getting their voices back, often literally, and are engaging with the media. I will share one, the heartbreaking story of Emily Hand who has lost two mothers and now has to rebuild her life with her father, one step at a time.