Here we go ...

Carry on as we did or recast America's soul, that's the choice today

The election, as I discussed in my podcast before, is basically a choice between keeping things the way they are with Harris, or roll the dice on the unknown with the Musk and Rogan-fuelled Trump candidacy. We are down to prolonging the American Dream by either taking the road taken or redirect tradition and culture but package it in a rocket that goes into uncharted territory. Listen to Megyn Kelly - who was no friend of Trump’s to put it mildly - in the video above endorsing the GOP candidate by underlining values more than anything else. Cultural values driving change: going back to tradition combined with wild economic experimentation, or with a Harris defined socially progressive course that will rely heavily on big government and the time tested Wall Street money printing machine.

Harris has the luck to be able to point to an economy that is rolling along nicely with, indeed grabbing Trump’s signature claim, incredible stock market performance. And with establishment politicians up behind her, her voters are signing up for a continuation of the last few decades where America’s left-leaning party has built this mismatch of unprecedented growth while producing unaffordable housing, unsustainable debt levels and inflation. For the working men and women of America, life has become harder and for the young entry onto this economic playing field is now so much more difficult. All of it is compounded by open borders, which is further suppressing wages. Trump is steering back to an isolationist America where ‘Make America Great Again’ refers to an America that actually came into being because it went global. Yes, both campaigns are riddled in contradictions which is why this has been such a frustrating campaign for most people. A runoff between Josh Shapiro and Nikki Haley would have been so much healthier all things considered.

Yet, there is a stark choice today. With a refocus on the ordinary American comes a drive to align with their values and how they have come to be completely misunderstood by America’s political and economic elites. It is the argument George Orwell put forward in The Road to Wigan Pier: socialism is directionally a solid choice, but it is managed by elites that fundamentally misunderstand the people whose lives they seek to improve. It is why Trump has played so well with union members, but also, Latinos and other minority groups who are looking for a better way to claim the American Dream.

That is the domestic picture. Internationally things have deteriorated to the point that there is almost no chance now to turn back from the brink of a widening global conflict. Again, both parties engineered a few decades of disastrous foreign entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Iran-Israel war and the bungled file of Russia and Ukraine. It all points to a simple and sobering truth: America is losing its global supercop role. The enemy smells weakness and has acted accordingly, America’s power is now tested everywhere, by Russia, China, Iran and their wilful servants. So it is no different here where a Harris presidency is likely to see a continuation of this trend or a Trump move with unorthodox solutions for foreign policy. The latter could include a settlement in Ukraine, it could also entail a different level of pressure on Israel to make a deal with some of its enemies. And no, the idea that change in Washington is good for Israel is only partially true because the Saudi purse has an unusual level of influence in a Trump White House.

So both domestically and internationally change is on the ballot. Seismic change. With Biden leaving the scene it is unclear if Harris will directionally alter his legacy as the Democrats have failed to put forward a real agenda for change. Trump, ironically the really old guy in the race, is offering that on all fronts: on the economy (tariffs, reorganize the federal government, unleash Musk) and on America’s role in the world. All of it built on a more traditional cultural foundation.

Of course, we don’t know if Harris will stay the course as president or if Trump can really affect the turn-around he has been selling on the campaign trail. But we have enough datapoints to base ourselves on as both candidates have a track record and ran a campaign with lots of signals of what could happen post-election. And if you are watching the results tonight remember it is not just the White House that is up for grabs: the Senate and the House are also in play.

You can’t ignore change. You can however pick your moment to embrace it and empower the vessel to help bring it about. That’s the choice today. If not, the same question will be on the ballot again in 2028. Maybe with Shapiro and Haley.