Finally

Israel does the dirty but necessary job and could help create a new Middle East

So it happened, finally. After decades of negotiating, threatening, incentivizing and who knows what else the international playbook spanning some twenty years contained, Israel went ahead. Recognizing that its move could potentially spark regime change in Iran the operation was coined ‘Rising Lion’ a nice reference to Iran’s pre-mullah national flag.

Some 200 Israeli jets attacked nuclear and military sites all over Iran. As of this writing we do know that the Natanz main enrichment site has been destroyed and that a number of Iran’s most senior military commanders are no more. Among them are Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Army Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri. Precision work one would say.

America is not part of this pre-emptive attack, but it was reported that it will support Israel if and when it comes under Iranian counterattacks. It was also communicated that the assaults from Israel on Iran may continue for a few more days and that all further negotiations between the US and Iran have been called off. It’s war now.

We may have also witnessed a carefully staged play by Trump and Nethanyahu leaving many with the impression that the diplomatic pieces were still moving around. There was therefore a lot of surprise and amazement globally over the past few hours that things moved this fast. But, we should not have forgotten that Trump did issue a sixty-day ultimatum on April 12 to Iran: make meaningful progress or else.

So this is what happened. What now?

1. There will be massive diplomatic retribution with multi-layered warnings for Israel and to insist on resuming diplomacy - Starmer has already started. But the truth is: many will be relieved that Israel has gone ahead with the job, but will never say so out of political expediency;

2. The Saudi have come out with a clear condemnation but don’t forget that a lot of this is stage play: removing a nuclear Iran from the scene will forever redraw the map of the Middle East in favour of the Sunnis with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as its central and most consequential power;

3. The US will now have - against all of Trump’s wishes and campaign promises - a serious conflict to manage and its forces in the Middle East will be back on full alert. They may have to engage if things escalate in the Gulf and in Israel itself;

4. Israel is as of this writing under attack and day-to-day life already has come to a halt with airports closed and public life grinding to a halt. This could last for quite a bit and put a serious strain on an already challenged Israeli society;

5. Iran may also - and this is the big likely, but unknown thing - activate ‘sleeper cells’ that are well armed and prepared for attacks against Israeli, Jewish, American and European targets anywhere on the planet;

6. There could also be attacks from Iran on oil producing facilities in Gulf states not aligned with Iran, oil prices are spiking as we speak with stock markets under pressure and this will impact economic activity worldwide;

7. Russia and China will not like any of this. Note that Iran was a relatively steady and reliable ally for both, in particular Russia benefitted from recent Iranian drone deliveries. After first losing Syria, Putin may now have lost Iran too.

8. And Nethanyahu, yes, the man who this week averted a cabinet crisis and still has not resolved Gaza, is the other lion that rises out of the ashes of this escalation. Whatever one thinks, Bibi will go down in history as the man who took on Iran and this will give an incredible boost to his popularity and political capital.

But amid all the uncertainty and continued hostilities there is one thing that is clear: one of the bloodiest regimes in the world and one that was eerily close to having nuclear weapons has been degraded, destabilized and possibly neutralized. The people of Iran may rise and create that better tomorrow they deserve after forty-six years. Israel at the same time has now almost singlehandedly destroyed the axis of Iran and its proxies Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas, while the Houthis will now also be further isolated. An incredible achievement.

All of this is the result of that gruesome day in October in 2023. What was planned as the destruction of Israel has been reversed and will now create the building blocks of a new and hopefully freer Middle East. It is a region where ruthless military power begets respect and eventually stability. Bear that in mind when you will read all the recriminations and anger directed at Israel over the next few days. They finally did necessary work.