Connecting the Dots

Iran, Hamas, Russia and the Dark Clouds of a New World

To be frank, I have been remiss in discussing a few important stories that under normal circumstances would have been covered here. Ukraine is one of them and it is the topic that got this newsletter traction last year. Well, things have not improved on the frontlines and as autumn is turning into winter we can conclude that all the plans for a breakthrough and recovery of occupied territories during summer failed. Progress has been marginal from Ukraine’s side and its commander in chief admitted as much earlier this week. It is a stalemate and it continues to be a meat grinder with massive casualties on both sides. With that we can expect a replay of last winter and a potential build-up to relaunch a Ukrainian offensive in the spring of next year. Only this time there is far less appetite to continue to support the war in European capitals while the US is now shifting its focus towards the Middle East while facing a rising cost to support both wars simultaneously. For Ukraine this is a dark scenario.

Dark clouds have been hanging over Iran too. On October 29, 17-year old Armita Geravand passed away after having spent weeks in a coma following an assault in a Tehran metro by morality police. Her crime, of course, was not wearing a headscarf. It is hard to keep track of the number of extremely violent incidents in Iran where young people and in particular women are targeted for disobedience and even simple protests. Yesterday news got out that imprisoned Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi has been denied medical care by her Iranian captors. The regime in Tehran maintains the upper hand in violently and cruelly suppressing dissent, while at the same time supporting the network of forces that is now cornering Israel and quite possibly tipping the Middle East into a much larger war. The relationship between Iran and Russia appears to be increasingly close and instrumental to building a new axis of power.

And what have Iran, Russia and Hamas in common? And come to think of it, China and North Korea? Look at Armita Geravand. Consider the Russian atrocities committed in Ukraine. And yes, look at how members of Israel’s parliament felt after a private showing of the Hamas GoPro-captured pogrom. All these nations are united in a total and utter disregard for humanity, even their own people are routinely thrown under the bus. It is a level of institutionalized violence and abuse the likes of which we thought we would never see again. That is the key commonality and that is what we are up against.

And that is also what people - directly or indirectly - are endorsing when they attend pro-Hamas or ‘from the river to the sea' protests across many western cities. These protests are a signal to Tehran, Moscow and even Beijing that in most democracies there is dissent and that there is far from a unified voice when it comes to standing up to the reformatting of the global order by these regimes. Let me ask this question: have we seen anywhere near the mass outpouring of grief when it came to coming together for Armita Geravand? Hardly. But when it comes to Gaza the streets fill up in no time. And that then begs another question: where has the world been protesting Hamas and its brutal suppression of the Palestinian people in Gaza? Dissent is deep and the residents in Gaza know full well where evil resides and who are ultimately responsible for their plight:

If you are looking for more detail on Hamas’ rule in Gaza, here is a great roundup. The world simply cannot claim it was not aware of the terror and atrocities.

Remember that as Israel is closing in on the gates of Gaza that a ceasefire was in place and that one party decided to violently break it. And they could only do this with the necessary support in place from their benefactors, in Tehran, but also indirectly in Moscow. The moment was picked for a number of reasons, but we should also not forget that the US and European nations have been hard at work to craft a nuclear deal with Tehran. It is a stretch to blame the Biden administration for the current mess, but state of the world on the morning of October 7 provided a unique window for Hamas to make its move. We still have to see how the effort is coordinated between Tehran and its proxies, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech today points to a ‘Hamas effort only’. Yet things move fast in this environment and we are still at peak volatility.

So, if it is hard to win the war for freedom and democracy in Ukraine, the world cannot afford a similar setback in Gaza. The very same things are at stake. For Israel, but equally for the Palestinians. Any disruption in Israel’s steely resolve and efforts would strengthen the merchants of evil and the many projects they operate around the world. Remember, these are the people who think nothing of beating teenagers into a deadly coma or murder families at the breakfast table. Despite their reprehensible views, they have been gaining strength and are increasingly collaborative. It may not be a world war, but a long war of attrition on multiple fronts.