Devastating Attack

We are all wired for bad news from across the globe, but reality always seems to be able to outdo our worst fears. The attack early AM local time by Hamas forces from Gaza on civilian and military targets in Israel is unprecedented. Why? Not only are we seeing massive rocket launches on all major Israeli population centres, but Hamas forces have entered southern Israel, crossing borders and breaching fences and other security layers. They’ve entered homes, executed and kidnapped men, women and children and many deaths have now been reported. On ‘X’ there are multiple videos of captured and murdered Israelis being paraded in the streets of Gaza. It’s sickening. So, this is not just another attack to tease or provoke Israel into cutting a short-term deal on some outstanding issues, no. It is all-out war. Here is are the three key points you have to keep in mind:

Timing - the attack comes at the very moment where Israel is very close to making a peace deal with Saudi-Arabia. Both countries have been working hard behind the scenes to establish diplomatic relations and once the Saudis are on board to partner with Israel there are very few if any Arab states left that are hostile to Israel. And Saudi Arabia is not just another Arab country, it is the Arab nation and the guardian of the holiest of Muslim shrines in Mecca and Medina. If they are willing to abandon the Palestinians then it is essentially the end of the road for the ‘Palestinian cause’ as we have known it over the past seven decades. It was for the Palestinian leadership probably one of the last chances to stir things up and that’s what they did.

Iran - Which is why the radical Palestinian groups have only one regional power center left to go and get the support they need: Iran. The attack today was done in full co-operation with and support from the regime in Tehran who have both domestic and foreign policy incentives to make a war on Israel worth their while. Apparently Hamas leader Haniyeh was spotted in Tehran only recently, and the ayatollahs have for as long they have been in power argued for the destruction of the ‘Zionist entity’. Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon (watch out for their response too) have been quite willing to execute on that mandate.

Bibi - This is nothing short of a devastating blow for Israel’s political, military and intelligence leadership. Bibi Nethanyahu has been elected again and again using his “Mr. Security” brand, but that reputation now will have to be re-evaluated. It is in tatters. And that on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the last time Israel was totally surprised but at least then civilian centres escaped unscathed. They should have learned all the lessons from these previous conflicts, in addition to being the cutting edge tech nation with the smartest military on the planet, wouldn’t you think, no? I have driven close to the Gaza border and it is full of Israeli villages and farms, all well protected on the face of it. Yet the barriers and security measures were far from impenetrable as it appears today. Why? This will, although not immediately, have far reaching consequences for Israel’s leadership. The last time Jews were attacked in their homes was in 1948 and during the Nazi occupation in Europe. This is unprecedented and the political price in Israel will have to be paid.

And now? Israel will unleash hell and rightly so. The targeting and deliberate murder of its citizens is horrific and unpalatable. The Biden administration this morning gave Israel the nod to do what it needs to do, so you can expect a full on assault on Gaza. And that will cause casualties on the Palestinian side which will then trigger the usual media storm in Western media about a ‘proportional response’. But I will tell you now that all of this has been fully factored in by the Hamas leadership in order to get sympathy from the world in an attempt to isolate Israel. Hamas deliberately puts its own citizens in war a zone.

So we are up for a Middle East at war with even a risk that Iran is somehow directly being brought into the fighting. But we also need to understand that there is no way that Hamas can win or even gain a sliver of Israeli land. The moment they launched their attack they had already lost the war. The goal is to inflict maximum damage on Israel while trying to disrupt Israel’s international relations. In that we may see a real challenge for the Jewish nation across the world. There will be global turbulence as a result, but the fall of 2023 may well mark the end of the Palestinian cause.