All bets are off

A deal for Gaza appears to be in the works and a hostage deadline is set

Many moving pieces, so here is a short update.

It is unclear what triggered it, it could have been Trump’s assertion to take over Gaza, it could also have been the state of the released hostages last weekend, it could be both. It could also have been something Trump and Nethanyahu discussed behind closed doors last week. But the hostage deal was on the verge of collapse at the beginning of this week. It started on Monday with Hamas announcing it was suspending the hostage releases that were agreed for Phase One (which ends on March 1), allegedly because Israel had violated certain terms of the deal. The same day Trump upped the ante and made it clear that all hostages, like the ones in both phases, would have to be released by noon this coming Saturday otherwise “hell breaks out”. The Israeli government after a long cabinet meeting yesterday supported that new US driven timeline.

At the same time King Abdullah of Jordan was roped into the debate as he visited Trump to discuss Middle East politics. And rather than mitigating or downplaying his explosive move on Gaza, the president happily took a next step by outlining it while sitting next to the King. The embattled royal had no other option than to remain polite and collaborative and lifted a tip of the veil by alluding to a plan in the works with Egypt and possibly Saudi Arabia that would resolve the Gaza situation. He followed up in the same chat by offering to take in 2,000 children from Gaza who have serious medical conditions, mostly cancer. But note, both Egypt and Jordan kept telegraphing outside of these Oval Office meetings that these plans do and should not involve displacement of the Arab population, contrary to what Trump is saying.

So the Trump banter about Gaza not being a problem and that ‘we will have it and keep it’ can no longer be dismissed as just verbal freestyling, yet it remains to be seen what comes out of it. There is a plan in the works and that must have given both the US and Israel the confidence to ratchet up the hostage rhetoric, a move strengthened by the public outrage over the state of the most recently released hostages. Hamas appears to be isolated now and while it is being suggested that it is running out of options, the hostages are the only remaining asset they have and they will leverage these to the fullest extent they have. It has put the hostages, 76 in total of which 40 are believed to be still alive in ever more danger. Hamas is down but not out and negotiations are continuing we learnt today.

What is evident now is that opposed to the Biden years, Washington is now in full control of the plans and the narrative and it is pushing hard. It is fully exerting its influence over both Israel and the key Arab states involved. Moreover, it does not have to allocate time and energy to Iran which has been battered and sidelined at least for now. That may also make it a bit harder to bring the Saudis along who always sought closer ties with Israel and the US as a line of defence against the overly belligerent mullahs in Tehran.

The hardest part was always to simultaneously resolve hostage situation and find a long term plan for Gaza and its governance. That is finally happening now, partly because of Trump’s wishes but also because it was inevitable, at some point someone had to bite the bullet and make a move.

There will be unintended consequences and setbacks, but the Middle East map is being redrawn in real time by an administration that is not wasting time. Let’s hope it brings the hostages back, alive.