So the bold move to effect a ceasefire as announced by Joe Biden on May 31 and pre-approved by Israel has now gone through a number of negotiation rounds. The net: Hamas has countered with a set of counter proposals that are non-starters for both Israel and the US. The deal is going nowhere, it’s stuck.
The stickiest points revolve around a total withdrawal of all Israeli troops, including from the Philadelphi corridor - which would give Hamas access to Egypt and arms smuggling again - and an Israeli guarantee backed by the US that the war would be over. The staged release of hostages of course is the other piece where the parties are far apart from one another.
Although US diplomats are signalling a restart of talks, there is very little hope at present that things will move again. And that brings us back to a continuation of the war and an ever more desperate situation for the remaining hostages. And as long as there is no deal Israel will have to use this window of time to advance is positions and degrade Hamas where possible. At the same time it is clear that a repeat of last weekend’s hostage rescue is unlikely, the surprise element does wear off while Hamas will have taken measures from something like this to happen again. Israel is stuck in Gaza and it will be there for quite some time, unfortunately.
It’s all happening in the North
All of this is compounded by the fact that Hezbollah has ramped up its missile and drone attacks in Israel’s north last week, setting a one day record in terms of volume since the war started eight months ago. The region is on fire, literally. This is a war of aggression from the Lebanese side, from Hezbollah, who have pretty much taken over what was left of the country’s sovereignty, a place once deemed to be the Middle East’s Switzerland. And: we are dealing with an internationally recognized border, Israel has no claims on Lebanese territory, nor did Lebanon have any claim on Israel’s. It is a purely Iran-sponsored war of aggression executed by Hezbollah and this has been in the works for many years. It is also totally ignoring UN Resolution 1701 of 2006 which basically demilitarizes Southern Lebanon, the area now used as a launching pad for all these attacks by Hezbollah. Israel has lost control of its north, its citizens cannot return to the area and it is now in response mode, Hezbollah has the initiative. Its troops, armed by Iran and battle hardened in Syria’s civil war, are now more and more ready to deliver on the often repeated promise to wipe Israel off the map. They have been planning this for years, they have been saying it for years, do take it seriously.
Israel however does not have the political unity right now to fight a war on two fronts, nor does it reportedly have the muscle and resources to do so. There is also a dark history of Israeli incursions into Lebanon, notably in 1982 and 2006 that were both bloody and domestically divisive and they serve as a potential warning to not quickly replicate such an exercise. Yet if Israel takes this direction, it should be extremely well prepared for it, politically and militarily.
Israel does not have any options to look away: its targeted counterattacks that we have seen so far will not suffice in reclaiming the north and neutralizing the Hezbollah threat, they are futile. So, there are rumours swirling around that a massive Israeli offensive is actually being prepared and this probably would involve an invasion and cleaning out the area south of the Litani river. If that were to happen it would properly be concurrent with a downscaling of the war effort in Gaza in order to save resources. If this escalates it could also potentially include direct attacks on Iranian positions, first as a warning, and then doing real damage leading to an all-out devastating Middle East war. And Israel will of course be blamed for it.
All of this is the last thing Biden needs as a Lebanon war with Iran in the mix would necessitate US action, remember how in October last year it activated its aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean as a signal to Iran to stay out. Going into the US election season, the Biden administration is getting the crystal clear evidence that the years of Iran-appeasement have not worked at all. In fact they have been disastrous and Israel is now the one exposed as a result. Iran is not different from Putin’s Russia; the beast will eventually be unleashed and deliver on its ominous warnings.
Needless to say, it is the very last thing that Israel needs right now. With Benny Gantz leaving the war cabinet there is not a national unity government to conduct a war of this magnitude (while also dealing with Hamas on Gaza) while the unrest and anger in the streets are escalating. Last Saturday’s protest in Israel was the largest since last October and the call from the anti-Nethanyahu and pro-hostage forces is to make this coming week one of action with the goal of forcing new elections. The Israeli public is exhausted after eighth months of war, an increasing death toll and political indecision. Something has got to give.
So?
There is no easy way out. Hamas and Hezbollah feel they have an upper hand now with an Israel that is under pressure on two fronts and not exactly winning the war of public opinion in the west. They can continue to play this game, but Israel can’t. It has to start making a choices as slow progress in Gaza and a stalemate in the north while no more hostages return home are rapidly tearing the nation apart. The alternative of going full throttle in the north will also mean that Hamas will dig in further and that no hostages will come home. A diplomatic solution to stall things appears to be out of reach right now, but count on the Biden administration to give it its all to make something happen. And if that succeeds it will only postpone a war that eventually will have to be fought.
Photos: traffic in Tel Aviv, stuck. Fire on the hills surrounding Safed (aka Tzfat) in Northern Israel. And, to not forget, some of the hostages Karina Ariev, Agam Berger, Daniella Gilboa, Liri Albag and Naama Levy, the five spotters captured on the Nahal Oz surveillance base:
Thank you, Pieter, for clarity on this situation. As you state the broader Middle East is at great risk of a massive war. There is little trustworthy coverage in the MSM and almost nothing on the situation on Israel’s northern border where 60,000 residents have fled their homes and towns are burning.
The root cause of this situation is the Islamic Republic of Iran’s training and arming of Israel’s foes on every front. This has occurred during the US Administrations of Obama and Biden. Combination of almost 12 years. They believe that appeasing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ambitions for hegemonic power will bring peace. At the clear expense of Israel and the Jewish people. Israel will defend herself with all weapons available as necessary.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, emboldened by years of US concessions is confident Biden in an election year will do little to act. Is the O’Biden brain trust so naive as to realize they’re pushing all parties into a diabolical abyss?
The US must teach Iran that supporting the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah is poor strategy. Not doing this is leading all to the brink. It would do more to stabilize the Middle East than Blinken aimlessly flying around the region uttering “Hamas is not negotiating in good faith”. As if Sinwar understands.