Year's End

Dear readers, another year has gone by. It was among other things the year of the big earthquake in Turkey, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the Ukrainian stalemate, the lost Titanic submarine and also the year of Elon Musk. And of course, it turned into the year of Israel, Hamas and the great destabilizer Iran. In many ways it felt as a transformative year and we were given clear evidence that the old world order is steadily falling apart, a number of armed conflicts now have the potential to spiral out of control at any given time. It is also the year that politics in western countries became inward looking: immigration, climate and affordability are now the core themes that are starting to prevent outward engagement. It was also the year that ends with the uncomfortable sensation that Tina Turner is no longer around.

And yes, it was the year I ramped up the newsletter and the last quarter was the one with the most visits and record levels of engagement. We set some records here and have traction, thank you!

October 7th

When I stood among the protestors on Kaplan Street in Tel-Aviv in February this year the thought crossed my mind that Israel was foolish to think their enemies would not notice their deep internal divisions. Well, they were paying attention and as we now know, they were getting ready. One of my readers who is also a close friend commented that there was maybe a bit too much Israel on the newsletter when I returned home in March. He was probably correct, so I started to go back to discussing Russia, China, Dutch farmers, Musk, Trudeau and a bit of Trump. Little did I know that when I touched down for another trip in Amsterdam on October 6 that the next morning the world would change forever. From the Middle East to American universities to Canadian shopping malls to Dutch elections, things would not return to normal. As some of my Jewish friends commented, every day is now October 7th. And indeed it is for a lot of us, the world is on the edge of a new era of wars, social disruption and with it a deep global economic realignment.

As a side note if you are interested, on YouTube you can now find testimonies of the families of those that were murdered and taken hostage on October 7th. If you can make it through them without crying you are stronger than me. There are too many to share here, but once you start the platform will take you to most of the others. Let me highlight two: the horror that befell the Arava and Elyakim families is both gruesome and sad; this one is so incredibly heartbreaking in particular when the mother reflects on the journey of raising a child. There are another thirteen-hundred of these stories.

The Markets

Despite all the global turmoil, the markets had one of their better years ever in terms of stock index performances. Yet these gains were concentrated in a limited number of companies (like Meta, Apple, Microsoft) and did not extend to a broader market. Private equity investment was down, merger and acquisition activity was not all that great and high interest rates put a damper on a lot of this activity. As a result real estate also experienced a difficult year.

So be cognizant of that when you look at the numbers and also be aware that while interest rate cuts in 2024 are likely, they are not a given. With wars ramping up and the Red Sea closed off for sea traffic we will see probably more spikes in the cost of goods and natural resources in particular. Tinkering with climate policies, an area where everyone agrees to disagree, will also have an impact. We are going into 2024 with more uncertainties than ever.

The Newsletter

And that goes for me too. Next to my writing I advised on a few financings this year that closed successfully, but it is unclear where the market for early stage tech companies will go. But as I always tell people during the talks and university classes I run: good deals will get done regardless of the economic climate. North America is relatively protected from the wildest excesses that now have a real impact on Europe and to some extent Asia. So, yes, more newsletter activity in the new year. And potentially more direct reporting, an Israel trip in the spring is in the works. With that and a US election there is no shortage of material.

Thanks

So I do want to thank everyone for reading and supporting. On a party this week someone said to me that he needed to sit down with me over a beer later, he had so many questions about the Middle East that needed to be discussed. I can't go for beers with everyone, but it really warms my heart that there is this level of interest in the newsletter and my thoughts. You can continue to comment, share and like, that really helps raise the profile of the newsletter. And you can take out a paid subscription it is 40% off the regular rate if you subscribe before January 21. Call it a ‘holiday special’.

So here we go into 2024. Enjoy the break, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and do use the quiet time to recharge, rethink and read. At least that is my plan, I will be back in early January with the regular updates.

Photo: despite its reputation as a dark and rainy place, Vancouver has its moments. This is the view from West Vancouver looking into the direction of the UBC Campus and Vancouver Island on Friday December 15, 2015 as captured by Nora Dorsman.