Winter of Peril

An inspiring inaugural during dark times

So I wanted to entitle this ‘Goodbye Don, Hello Joe’ but after listening to Biden’s inaugural speech the term ‘Winter of Peril’ stayed with me. It hits the mark as it not only describes the pandemic and the political turmoil that America is going through this winter, but so much more.

One can argue that the winter started many years ago with the financial crisis, shifting economic patterns worldwide, the resulting deepening inequality, emerging populist voices, increasing international tension and serious environmental challenges. For all his faults and shortcomings, it was Trump who recognized and articulated the deep impact of these changes. The departing president lacked the political skill to start chipping away at the issues and failed to provide even the very basics of a vision of where America should be going as a nation. That’s why he lost and it is now up to Biden and Harris. They have inherited the deep problems that emerged from well before Trump, but which have now been turbocharged by the pandemic and the deep domestic divisions in the US. On top of that America’s opponents have gone from strength to strength during the last few years with China, Russia and Iran gaining ground in the international arena. In fact apart from the shocking drama on Capitol Hill two weeks ago, the US retreat from the world stage will prove to be the key Trump legacy of lasting damage. Even the Europeans and Israelis have been actively reorienting themselves on a world stage where leadership and ideas are no longer coming from Washington.

So the Trump-Biden years may well be defined as the 21st century winter of history where the carefully crafted post-World War II order will end and be redefined. And therefore it is up to Biden to not only deal with the operational issues at hand (pandemic, immigration, economy, deficits) but to start crafting a vision of where America and the world should be going. We need a strategic direction that will serve all of us well after Joe has left the stage.

Look, I don’t want to be negative and I understand and share the hope following the sunny inaugural this morning which was truly inspiring. And as only the second Roman Catholic president taking office, the biblical inferences in the speech indicate that we have a man grounded in values and direction. But the idea that we are getting a simple return ticket back to the pro-Trump days is wishful thinking, not going to happen. We are in for an increasingly difficult time with deep dilemmas and hard choices. And Joe and Kamala will have to work very hard to bring a divided America along on the journey.

I have a bet over a good bottle of wine with a good friend on Biden’s ability to hang in there for four years. Some argue he will hand over to Harris well before the end of his term, but I doubt it. And we want a full Biden term, but we should all be quite concerned over what exactly it is going to bring. Probably less noise and reality theatre this time, but no shortage of crises and unexpected disruptions with long lasting impact. Because that’s where history has landed us, in a deep winter.