Where are we now?

Biden's brazen announcement confuses and creates more danger in the Middle East. And it is kicking the can down the road.

We may never know if the timing was intentional or not, but at the moment that Israel and Jews globally tune out for 25 hours and focus on Shabbat, Joe Biden announced a comprehensive ceasefire plan that would end the Israel-Gaza War. It includes three timed phases with hostage and prisoner releases, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an ambitious plan for reconstruction of the area. The proposal, at least the parts of it that were made public, is largely silent on who will govern Gaza. Biden who no doubt was keenly aware of that particular concern stated that Hamas was devastated to such an extent that it could no longer be able execute an attack on Israel similar to the one of October 7th. But, he used the words “at this point” to describe Hamas’s capabilities. As you can imagine social media exploded even before we hit sunset on Friday evening and this is a great summary of where things were headed:

All of them bearing a kernel of truth, one way or the other. But the draft plan as outlined by Biden was indeed approved by Israel’s three-person war cabinet, and not the entire Nethanyahu coalition cabinet. The pressure applied by the US on Israel and inside the war cabinet by Gantz and Gallant on Nethanyahu in all likelihood swung things such that it was approved and got branded as an Israeli-plan, communicated by Biden and, get this, not long thereafter viewed positively by Hamas. Let’s pick the dynamic behind it apart and then assess what could be next.

Biden - whatever the impact of Trump’s legal troubles, Biden’s polling numbers do not look great. Part of his coalition is peeling away and he will need every vote to convert his effort into second term in November. Escalation, even just a continuation, of the war is detrimental to his electoral success. So the plan is driven by US political requirements which can only mean that essential pieces of it were not fully considered or ‘kicked down the road’. The thing needed to go out regardless and it therefore is not unreasonable to argue that the basics of the plan are not solid.

Nethanyahu - the ultimate master of ‘kicking the can down the road’ is Israel’s PM. That is his modus operandi, it is what he does and it has always worked for him. And given the fact that there is no support for this plan in the rest of his governing coalition (Ben Gvrir, Smotrich) the working assumption is that he will string them along for now and once a first batch of hostages is returned, frustrate or blow up the Biden plan and resume war. Nethanyahu’s innate ability to satisfy all parties, but only temporarily and serving all of them half-truths is also making the likelihood of the plan’s success far from solid.

Also do not forget that there is a fair bet being placed on Trump winning the election. In that case both the war and concurrent ceasefire discussions can be easily played out for another five months at which time the world could look decidedly different.

Hostages - and that is bad news for the hostages and their families. For them the Biden announcement was the sign they had been waiting for and together with many supporters took to the streets on Saturday in Israel night once Shabbat was over. No more war and ‘bring them home now’ is the message once more. The sticky point however is that hostage releases take place at two time intervals which is far from ideal. Worse, the plan leaves Hamas, in theory, in charge and that opens the scope for continued abuse of those that are captured and potentially future hostage takings. Which is why Israel wanted to eliminate Hamas in the first place.

Israel - so the country is split on this as many still feel that continuing military operations remains warranted in order to totally defeat and destruct Hamas. Yet this keeps tearing away at the unity that emerged after October 7th in particular. As mentioned before here, the call for the hostages to be released is a call to re-unify the nation around the goal of their safe return, take stock and assess the landscape before fighting on. Former Canadian ambassador to Israel, Vivian Bercovici, gives some arguments in favour of this particular route in her podcast last night. It has merit, but it also ‘kicks the can down the road’.

Hamas - in a way Sinwar can sit back and continue reading his ‘X’ feed and wait it all out. So far Israel has not defeated him, international support for Palestinians is growing and the Biden plan is giving his organization a lifeline to eke out a win and survive. Many commentators have pointed out that that could be a bridge for Hamas to start taking over from the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. More broadly the adoption of the plan would prove that terror works, it just takes time before Western countries are tired of it and give you a break, including a plan to fund it.

Arab World - do not forget that Biden is dangling security guarantees in front of Saudi Arabia’s ruling elite. This is the grand deal where Saudi Arabia will recognize Israel, it is a packaged arrangement with useful elements for all involved. Adoption of the plan would also open the door for them to distance themselves a bit from Israel - while building diplomatic relations - by bolstering the Palestinian cause. Qatar and other Gulf States would be involved in the multi-billion dollar Gaza reconstruction project.

And can you guess who else would be interested in rebuilding Gaza with the help of Gulf states? Who frames the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in pure economic terms? Right, that’s Trump. And Nethanyahu. I just threw that in there for you to see the various elements and unlikely turns all of this can take.

Iran - the ultimate prize winner of course is Iran. If this plan sees the light of day it will not have won the war, but a crucial battle. It once more can write up a win, benefitting from Biden and Obama’s dramatic appeasement policies vis-à-vis the mullahs. And that includes that Hezbollah which has been bombing northern Israel non-stop (this weekend even reaching Acre, you will not read a lot of that in most media) can retreat without paying any price for its lethal aggressiveness.

Israelis, Palestinians - they all lose. The plan as presented ensures that so many people on both sides have died for absolutely nothing. Gaza remains a Hamas state with limited chances for freedom and progress, in fact a vengeful Hamas may become ever more aggressive in staging its comeback. Israel in the meantime will have to brace itself for another assault in the near future, if not in the Gaza area then in the north where Iran-sponsored Hezbollah comfortably has strengthened its positions as Israel was never able to fundamentally degrade it.

Actually, we all lose. See what is happening on our campuses, on our streets and in our media. We are more divided and angrier than ever. At the very least we can argue there is a lot more clarity of what is really going on in the Middle East, although few will want to see and acknowledge that.

So what is next?

No one knows. There are too many variables in play, and the players are given to volatility and short-term political interests. It will be a very slow grind to get to the Biden-announced ceasefire or to a ramp-up of warfare. And both could happen simultaneously.