Weekend Wait for War
Iran may strike any time now as two octogenarians consider their legacies
Going into a long summer weekend the world is on edge although you wouldn’t really notice it given the focus on holidays and Olympics. But Israel is bracing itself for a likely attack from Iran or any of its proxies or all of them together to avenge the murder of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. Intense communications between the US and Israeli governments are taking place where Washington is actively trying to restrain Israel by pushing it to not pre-emptively attack. Again, there is no appetite for a huge escalation in the waning days of the Biden presidency although in doing so the outgoing president may risk having a disastrously failed Iran strategy as his foreign policy epitaph.
The best case scenario, is a replay of the April attacks from Iran. Then the US, together with Britain, France and Jordan, and supported by the Saudis, helped to thwart the Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel. But there are very good reasons to assume that a different scenario will play itself now out whereby Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen will play a very active role by unleashing a level of firepower that we have not seen before. Israelis are actively stocking up on household items and hospitals are getting ready, and so are Jewish communities around the world who have been put on notice that anything can happen this weekend. Yes, the fear and anxiety are real and at unprecedented levels.
We now know that Haniyeh wasn’t killed by a missile or drone, but by a bomb planted in his apartment months ahead of his eventual fatal visit. We also note that Israel has still not claimed responsibility for it all, something it has done for eliminating Fuad Shukr and Mohammed Deif, respectively the Hezbollah and Hamas top military commanders. So what’s up with the assassination in Tehran?
Was it an opportunity that finally came up to be good to be true, or a more defensive move to re-establish Israel’s lost deterrent capabilities? Or as some would have it, a deliberate attempt by Nethanyahu to provoke Iran knowing it would escalate? And then draw in America? Whatever the core drivers, the ‘Tehran surprise’ is a far more strategic move than the more routine, but important, tit-for-that eliminations of Shukr and Deif.
And it is impossible to say what will happen next. However at a certain level it feels that many years of failed Iran engagement trying to get a nuclear deal and stabilize the Middle East are now coming to a head. Iran never wanted peace and balance. Hamas’ move on October 7th followed shortly by Hezbollah and the Houthis entering the war may in the end have forced Iran’s hand to get far more involved and earlier than it had originally planned to. A strategy of outsourcing war has diminishing returns, at some point you will have to get engaged yourself. And an undecided Iran is what the Biden administration has probably banked on as a potential off-ramp from the current turbulence in order to basically defer any escalation to some point in the future. The result of that would be to let a future US president face and announce the ‘fait accompli’ of a fully nuclear Iran.
But we are not dealing with a rational actor that is actively calibrating worldly considerations. An eighty-five year old man, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, will make the call for some sort of a violent response. He is not only an incredibly durable dictator; he is a devout cleric whose time is running out and he may make a bold move lest his epitaph would equally reek of unfinished business and defeat.
Stay tuned.
The true reason we are in this global scenario is because of the delusional policies of the USA under the Democratic administrations of Obama, Biden and if elected Harris. The foreign policy braintrust of Obama, Biden, Sullivan, Blinken, Malley, et all have advocated for the naive enablement and regional integration of Iran into the Middle East. It's an absurd policy (Shia vs. Sunni to start) for a regime that preaches "death to America" at every opportunity!
The reality of the US's delusional foreign policy in appeasing and enriching Iran have brought us to where were are now -- Reminiscent of 1938 Europe. Hitler with nukes. Never have we been closer to WWIII than now. It was all preventable by what has been the global superpower! Excellent commentary here: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-812994
It’s more than passing strange that the world seems to accept Iran’s attempt to avenge its humiliation as some inalienable right under international law when it is, in fact, a clear violation. Israel is not at war with Iran, Iran has announced that it is at war with Israel for decades. That makes all the difference, both legally and morally.
It’s also very rich coming from Iran which has famously murdered former Iranian officials living under protection in France (the same country that had given the Ayatollah Khomeini asylum for over a decade), killed untold numbers of dissidents under protection throughout Europe and, more recently, targeted the Saudi ambassador in Washington DC.
Meanwhile, there’s a rumor going around that Iran and its proxies will attack on Tisha b’Av, the Jewish day of mourning for the destruction of the First and Second Temples in Jerusalem - the existence of which the Palestinians have recently taken to denying outright.
The April coalition is regrouping to oppose Iran and Israel has bruited mention of a defense-offense reaction. If Iran sends large salvos of missiles and drones, one might expect a real time reaction by Israel, backstopped defensively by its coalition.
One day, Iran might understand that it is its own worst enemy and its goals are unobtainable. But just as with its proxies, that day is not today. Could it be around the corner? One can only hope.