War and Tech Merge

At Collision, Garry Kasparov analyzes the Ukraine conflict and Russia's next moves

Events in Ukraine merged with tech on stage at Collision yesterday with FT editor Gillian Tett quizzing cybersecurity expert Ondrej Vicek and Garry Kasparov who of course needs no introduction. Vicek focused on the war that we do not see, ranging from cyberattacks to disinformation and how both Russia and Ukraine have performed in these areas so far. The noteworthy thing is that Russia in particular has not succeeded in degrading Ukrainian infrastructure through targeted cyber sabotage, the nation’s power grid was cited as an example of having survived numerous attempts. In fact, it appears Russia is quite vulnerable to counter measures and does not have the strengths, technically and militarily, that it likes to project to the world.

Kasparov weighed in on the success of the Ukrainian war effort in general and talked about the decentralized, tech enabled open source character of the war. Ukraine’s military operations are quite autonomous, leaving individual military units to attack quickly, retreat and reappear in other places. This is only possible in a situation where authority is delegated, tech enabled and where the units on the ground have flexibility and a relatively flat command structure. It is interesting to see this phenomenon in action, the Israeli army has operated along these lines forever and in doing so spawned an incredibly successful tech sector. In Ukraine we are now seeing the reverse where the availability of various hard and in particular software solutions is enabling a new way of organizing an army. Russia’s forces operate in a far more antiquated structure and the results of that are evident. Both parties combine tech and conventional weaponry in an unprecedented way and it is according to Kasparov a total new type of waging war and we have yet to see how this all evolves on the battlefield.

Kasparov’s overall thesis on Russia is of course not new, he has been out there giving warnings for the last twenty years. It was good however to hear him succinctly outline in person how Putin’s agenda has always been very clear. Dictators argued Kasparov don’t ask “Why”?” but ask “Why not?” and the continuous expansion of Russia’s military adventures in former Soviet territory are the exact evidence of this approach. The West has absolutely no other option than to ensure that Ukraine wins. Any other outcome would be devastating and unleash further conquests and instability orchestrated by the Kremlin. This week’s turbulence over Kaliningrad and Lithuania is a good example of that. Any discussion over Putin’s health are sideshows, quite likely deliberate disinformation, and irrelevant according to Kasparov. Keep our eyes on the war, arm Ukraine and ensures it wins was the conclusion: there is no other way about it.

In a broader context this is resonating, but not always convincingly. Last week Dutch Prime Minister Rutte got into hot water domestically when he argued that “the War in Ukraine is indeed our war”. He tried to make it clear that the conflict has a direct cost (energy in particular) that will impact the lives of the average European on a daily basis. He may have framed that message in a way that makes the Dutch deeply uncomfortable, hence the outcry over it, but he was channeling Kasparov’s dire message that we simply cannot look away and are all invested in this. Whether it is with tech, money, weapons or actual people on the ground, Putin’s force needs to be rolled back decisively.

The audience at Collision’s main stage seemed receptive to the analysis but was equally interested in the after lunch chess game Kasparov played against a number of attendees. Life goes on, and so does the war.