US bombs Iran

So a quick assessment after the US bombed nuclear sites in Fodrow, Natanz and Isfahan only a few hours ago:

• While expected, the timing was still a surprise. Obfuscation, mixed messaging (notably from JD Vance earlier) left everyone thinking that something would happen within two weeks. It did not.

• Trump stuck to his words and was serious about Iran not having a nuclear weapon. He offered the Iranian multiple routes and they continued to play the game they were used to under both Obama and Biden. It was bound to go off the rails.

• The planning and collaboration between Trump and Nethanyahu over the past little while is of a different order. They agreed on the mission and mapped it out meticulously. This level of US-Israeli collaboration is unprecedented.

• Question: how did the entire world dance around this issue and threw billions at it thinking Iran was an all-powerful entity that could only be brought into fold through peaceful negotiation? How?

• And how did the Europeans ever think they were playing a role of importance in this process? It always was a US-led game with Israel as the key ally. We will learn more in the months ahead how Arab countries played a supporting role in the background.

• China and Russia lost big tonight. In particular China which was playing for a role in the Middle East (not least as a major client of Iran’s resources). The US is once again the ultimate power broker in the Middle East. Russia’s role, already diminished, is now down to zero.

• And yes that could open up the way to create a longer term peace arrangement with both Israel and Saudi Arabia in sync and together harmonizing the region. That is a long way off, yes, but one of the biggest obstacles was removed tonight.

• What is next … it all depends on the reaction from Tehran, of course. The US has stated clearly the job is done, now is the time cease hostilities and go back to negotiate. Israel would and should be expected to follow this lead for now. Stand down, take stock, but be ready for immediate re-engagement if necessary.

• There are more than just rumours that point out that Iran was simply incapable of fighting any war from the outset, technically and operationally. Israel decapitated the military command and that contributed to further chaos. Demotivation and doubt may have set in across all levels of military and security operations. There may be no teeth to fight this, at least let’s hope that is the case.

• There can and will be no regime change with active US or Israeli involvement. That is a lesson learned the hard way. It is up to the people of Iran now to take care of their own affairs and take a journey to a place where billions can now be spend on their economy and well-being rather than on arming the region and unproductive nuclear adventures.

• My final thought: among all the doomsayers I do want to point out that the millstone of Iran’s evil ambitions has been taken off our collective backs. Whatever happens in the next few days, there are now new avenues and alternatives that can help shape a new and more peaceful Middle East.

Photo: Trump and Vance in the White House Situation Room on June 23, 2025.