Uncharted Territory

Israel's mission is not complete, Trump wants a piece and Iranians need to step up

It was to be expected, of course. The United States gave its tacit approval to Israel’s pre-emptive strike on Iran, but opted cleverly to not be involved knowing how risky the endeavour might be. But now, some five days in and it becoming clear what an extraordinary success the mission has been so far, Trump has stepped up and started to claim his stake. He wants a piece and it started by him today pointing out that America was controlling the skies over Tehran, while hinting at some form of direct involvement soon. As Nethanyahu is starting to bask in the success it is more clear than ever that success indeed has many fathers. Yet it is far too early to go into ‘mission accomplished’ territory, there are a of lot things that still might go wrong. Let’s touch on a few key things.

A Narrow Mission

Based on most recent reports it is Israel’s stated goal to only destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities. And that is what it is, no push to further effect a regime change in Iran or other on the ground involvement. But that also means that Israel cannot accept only a handicapped Iran whose nuclear ambitions have been temporarily set back by a few years. The latter would be a sort of win, but would land Israel - and the world at large - back at the same point from where it started. As of today we do not know what can be accomplished and if Israel will indeed - with or without direct US military support - destroy all the targeted nuclear sites across Iran.

Regime Change

What that means is also that it is clearly not Israel’s ambition to directly topple the mullah regime, that is up to the people of Iran. But it will be a highly desirable byproduct and could potentially solve any remaining future nuclear tensions. But that is making the assumption that: (a) the regime indeed falls; and that (b) any new leaders in Tehran lean pro-West and pro-Israel.

Despite the global excitement it is hard to see if indeed - given the current chaos and safety concerns - Iranians are actually in a position to organize an uprising. And what is more, the country’s opposition has always been relatively poorly organized with no unifying force although the son of the last Shah, Reza Pahlavi, appears to be the odds on favourite. Yet, the current regime still has many followers and as Sohrab Ahmari points out in this excellent but pessimistic analysis: things in Iran may come apart and even spin into the post-Saddam chaos that characterized Iraq after the 2003 invasion. At that point the country is wide open for multiple forces to take it over, potentially nixing what Israel has accomplished over the past few days.

A Larger Conflict

My youngest daughter texted me inquiring if we were now entering into World War III. I gave her a clear ‘no’ but she retorted by pointing out that we are now dealing with Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran as well as the recent spat between India and Pakistan. And on the face of it this seems to be a sound overview of a world that is on fire. Yet it misses one key ingredient: China. There are only two superpowers on this planet and for a real world war to manifest itself we will need both the US and China actively engaged in the conflict.

The Chinese are far from pleased with Israel taking down one of its close partners, yet it could at some level provide them with the confidence that after Russia’s move on Ukraine and Israel’s move on Iran, there is now room for a unilateral move on Taiwan. And potentially get away with it unless the US steps up in which case we will enter world war territory. What’s more, the US and (Europe to some extent) could be so distracted by both the Middle East and Ukraine that the temptation to cross the Taiwan Strait simply proves to be irresistible. And we also know that China has been prepping this scenario intensely.

International Law

And that brings us to the almost futile role that international law has to play. Of course it was a matter of days and the usual cast of Israel critics have started to highlight how not Iran, but Israel and its attack is flouting international agreements. And that therefore support for the Jewish nation should once more be assessed in a critical light. But international agreements and their effectiveness are constrained by the extent to which they can be enforced. It was easy to apply force and law in contained and smaller conflicts such as the former Yugoslavia, but the idea that for instance Vladimir Putin could be arrested and brought to the Hague and stand trial - an idea entertained by many politicians and legal experts - is too improbable to even consider.

And so it is for Israel. Think about it, Iran has been flouting international law from the day the Islamic Republic was conceived in 1979: from the taking of the US embassy to the murderous bombing of the Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires to the attempt to kill dissident Masih Alinejad on US soil. And this is only a very small sampling and not even counting the nuclear infractions and the endless abyss of human rights abuses in Iran itself. Or destabilizing sovereign states such as Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. How did the international legal profession do in these cases?

We are dealing with a rogue state where international law has actually been weaponized and used against Israel, against the West and against the entire international order. It may not be as apparent as it should, but Israel has done the global community a huge favour. As German chancellor Merz pointed out today: “this is the dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us”.

The Home Front

While the war in Gaza remains deeply unpopular in Israel, the attack on Iran is lifting the spirits and could be a partial redemption for Bibi Nethanyahu. The nation is not broken although the extreme economic pressures of fighting a war on multiple fronts, an exhausted reserve force and now each and every citizen in bomb shelters every night (with to date twenty-four Israelis killed) is not something that can be sustained forever. Amid the jubilation of the audacious military roll-out of the start-up nation deep into enemy territory, there are concerns about the direction and I see these pop up here and there in WhatsApp groups and social media. Yet the spirit of Israel is unbroken and the scenes from the bomb shelters tell you the story, you simply cannot defeat this:

So?

There are too many moving pieces right now and we are in uncharted territory. Yes, we can based on the successes so far define a certain outcome and see the emergence of a new, more peaceful and freer Middle East. But it still may be a long journey to get there and many things could still fall apart. Israel - with or without the US - could fail to complete the mission, the regime in Tehran could hold on, or Iran could fall into a violent civil war. That may lead to a rapid exit for both Israel and the US which in turn would open the door for other powers to fill the void. Many moving pieces. Stay tuned.

Photo: Reza Pahlavi addresses the Iranian people on June 17, 2025.