Ukraine's Struggle
Russia regroups, the West doubts and a new NATO chief is coming
We are marking two years into this war this week and Ukraine is in trouble.
That is a very high level assessment, but it is not entirely misguided to start getting the sense that the battlefield dynamics are changing. The famed summer offensive of 2023 stalled without material gains and if we look at the frontlines now we see Russia is taking the initiative. The most notable result was the fall of Avdiivka last weekend, where a strategically located city in the Donbas area was abandoned by Ukraine after a long bloody winter of intense fighting. The relative strength of Russia’s troops in numbers and the steady depletion of Ukraine’s artillery ammunition reserves have been cited as reasons for the collapse of the city’s defences. It was followed by a disorganized retreat of the defending forces.
We have discussed the steady retooling of the Russian economy into one focused on war and much like Stalin in World War II, Putin needed some time to optimally access and organize his endless resources. There is progress there and it is in particular in the area of supplies and reserves where Zelensky is feeling the pressure right now. Arms deliveries from the west have slowed down and in the US case these are now literally stuck in a divided and obstructionist Congress. Also note that the F-16 deliveries to Ukraine are slow to happen, only yesterday the current NATO chief indicated the dilemmas in progressing this vital piece of military support. In terms of manpower too there is a pinch. Morale among Ukraine’s forces is down in particular after the blow in Avdiivka where many were taken prisoner of war. Attempts to enlist some 500,000 men into Ukraine’s army are stalling and that is bad news for Zelensky. The president has revamped his leadership with a new commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrkyi, only a few weeks ago as a means to re-invigorate the military efforts.
It has always been clear that in a one-on-one fight Russia would eventually win this, and only strong and ongoing support from the West could sustain Ukraine holding the lines. It never has been made clear exactly what sort of support was required to roll-back Russia back to internationally recognized borders. And that is the theory that has been gaining currency over the past few weeks: the West never was interested in a decisive Ukrainian win and ensured that weapon deliveries matched that goal. A stalemate would be the best possible outcome as it would keep Putin in his seat and avoid a nuclear escalation. No, that does not mean Putin is a good old pal, but a humiliating Russian defeat could potentially spur the emergence of elements far more radical than the current leader. So we have an outsourced war where the dial is not moved one way or the other, at least for now. That also serves the political goal of keeping the conflict out of the headlines: this is a war in which most Americans, Canadians and Europeans aren’t terribly interested in in the first place. It is state of the art ‘realpolitik’ the price of which is paid for in rivers of blood by both Ukrainians and Russians.
It is a cynical view for sure, but if you consider all the facts two years into this adventure, then it is hard to see it in a fundamentally different way. Given the overall political climate and in particular the upcoming US elections we cannot expect a sudden and increased re-armament of Ukraine’s forces. There is no readiness for a spring offensive like there was last year and we may even start to worry about what a Russian counter attack in the warmer months of the year could look like. It may already have started.
NATO is about to get a new chief with outgoing Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte the dead on favourite to assume the role later this year. Rutte is a known to be a strong supporter of Ukraine and also on record to be able to say ‘no’ to Trump. Yet above all he is a realist and he too will understand that the long game in Ukraine will require some creative diplomacy to arrive at a settlement that simply cannot be reached on the battlefield. Ukraine will have to gear up for this scenario and in the meantime minimize its territorial losses, with or without more support from its allies.
Photo: President Zelensky and Ukraine’s military leadership (photo: Ukraine Government).