The moment a major news story breaks the mind processes it and it then maps out a few likely events or potential outcomes that are bound to follow. At last, that is what happened to me on October 7th. Some initial thoughts on what transpired and what might happen after crossed my mind, others I noted had similar hunches. They were important but also potentially controversial ones, so let’s test them and see if they have come to fruition. There’s five of them, let’s go:
We will see evidence of unspeakable sexual violence - The saddest and the easiest prediction. As described earlier this week we knew on that morning that rape was an integral part of the Hamas attack. Sexual violence was always part of the Palestinian playbook. What we did not know was the massive scale on which it occurred and the horrific cruelty that the terrorists inflicted on Israeli women and also men. We did not foresee that internationally both the media and organizations that should have cared and reported remained largely absent on this issue for almost two months. And the abuse continues to this day for the remaining hostages, in fact it is the reason they will not be released according to the US State Department.
Hostages will be treated as collateral damage - It was not too hard to see that Israel would launch a counterattack of epic proportions. And that would immediately risk the lives of all the hostages, the exact number of which we were all guessing that morning. I do recall thinking that day that the hostages might well be thrown under the bus by Israel: the war cabinet would have to balance the lives of some two hundred and fifty of its citizens against the security of almost ten million people living in Israel. Unless Israel had superior intelligence of the hostages’ whereabouts - unlikely in particular given the colossal intelligence failure on Israel’s side - any attack on Hamas would inevitably result in hostage casualties.
This is of course a somewhat harsh assessment, but it is one that the hostage families have always suspected. The chaotic and poorly managed proceedings on Tuesday this week where the war cabinet met with released hostages and families of captive hostages points to this. Although there is no evidence, it is becoming clearer that saving the remaining hostages has probably become a secondary objective in the Gaza operations.
There will be no state in Gaza, ever - The Palestinian state is dead, over, was an often heard comment that day. In an instant it became clear that Israel would never again allow the emergence of an entity on its borders capable of such genocidal violence. Hamas has kindly reconfirmed that October 7th was a rehearsal and that they would gladly do it again. It has sealed the fate of any long term negotiated settlement that would involve a Palestinian state. And it doesn’t matter if Hamas is eliminated, the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is as unreliable as it is prone to slide into Hamas-type behaviour.
All past peace efforts got set back by decades. It has changed the geo-political landscape with both less American leverage and a far more robust Iran, supported by Russia and China. It has made ‘peace’ and ‘state’ concepts that are further away than ever. No one knows what a post-war arrangement will look like for Gaza and that will impact the West Bank too. If a state, recognized by Israel and the rest of the world, ever emerges most of us will no longer be around to witness it, at least that is my prediction.
Nethanyahu is finished - The man that managed to bring Israel to the brink of a civil war this year with his government’s controversial judicial reforms was also asleep at the wheel when the most devastating attack to ever hit the Jewish nation took place. In his desperation he tried to absolve himself of any responsibility and stick it to the military and intelligence community in Israel. Add to this his ongoing corruption trial and it is not a surprise that a large of majority of Israelis will want to see him exit sooner rather than later. If an election were held today, Bibi would be humiliated. However the man who managed to claim the nicknames ‘Mr. Security’ and ‘King Bibi’ will not go.
Some context. Nethanyahu’s father, the late Benzion, was a historian and legendary professor of Jewish history. He was known - according to one anecdote - to have birthday parties end in hefty debates about obscure factoids from Jewish history. To have his son preside over the country on the day of the Simchat Tora Pogrom is a stain on the Nethanyahu legacy like no other. So Bibi will want to see this through until victory and try and reclaim his place in Jewish history. So he is finished politically yes, but he is not gone. His presence will remain a drain on Israeli unity and an eventual positive end of the war.
It will escalate and the world will stand divided - The moment Hamas rolled into Israel was also the moment that we woke up out of our Obama and Biden induced dreams of a ‘deal with Iran’. We did not know yet that the Houthis in Yemen would engage in attacking ships and that Hezbollah’s contribution would only be performative rather than a feared all-out assault on Israel. But both are active and could ramp up fast and nothing has happened so far that would decrease the tensions in the region, quite the contrary. There was extreme care on using the words ‘existential threat’ for Israel, but if we witness how rapid the support for Israel is unravelling (in the world, but also in the Arab world where Israel was close to achieving lasting peace with some countries) combined with an Iran supported regional network it is clear that Israel could potentially suffer some real damaging losses in the months to come.
So most of the gut assessments that morning were more or less correct, we just did not know what shape they would take. We also intuitively knew that the worst slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust would rip open the most sacredly held notion of the state of Israel: Jews are safe here. The psychological damage on the country in general is significant. For the hostages, the families of all victims including the fallen soldiers it is deep and beyond traumatic. But the resolve is stronger than ever and the results in Gaza, see photo below, are beginning to create meaningful change on the ground.
That said we are still witnessing a deepening conflict whose impact will be felt globally for a long time to come. We are on an uncertain trajectory but our hunches and gut feelings will give direction as to where we are going.
Photos: Hamas fighters before and after (today) the battle.
Note: Substack was making it hard to add links today, so will insert those later.