It is hard to believe but the war in Ukraine has been raging for a full two months now. It also feels if some of the urgency and excitement is waning as other news items take precedence: many people and observers are moving on. This cycle is not unusual, but it is depressing. However there are lots of takes and instead of the standard ‘there is no end in sight’ it is fair to say that the dynamics of the fighting are revealing an escalation that will take us to places where we have not been for a long time, if ever. The key to understanding this is that Russia is intent on an annihilation of the Ukrainian nation (meaning not just the country, but also its people as a distinct cultural entity) and that in Russia itself there is strong and growing support for this bloody venture.
This shatters some of the prevalent notions from two months ago, in particular the one that had us believe that sanctions would cripple Putin’s regime. So far these sanctions are still being rolled out and appear not to have had the impact everyone was hoping for. Worse, there are prominent supporters such as former chancellor Gerhard Schröder who thinks we should not move all that fast on this. Gerhard is a good friend of Putin, collects royally from board seats on Russian entities and is not without influence in Germany. It is actually surprising how slow all these economic measures move, as we keep hearing ‘new sanctions’ are coming I always wonder what’s left: did we not over the past two months pretty much use all the options we had in the sanction playbook? Where we not told that these were unprecedented and heavy measures? Or are we only half way, sort of? In any case, Putin’s girlfriend is off the hook, sanctioning her is apparently seen as ‘too escalatory’ and therefore only as a measure of last resort.
The battlefield is where it is at. And in that regard, Ukraine has put up a phenomenal fight, defying all the basic assumptions about its military capabilities. The steady stream of weapons and intelligence have helped, the foreign soldiers of fortune too, but more than anything it is the spirit of resistance and brotherhood that are giving the Ukrainian armed forces its momentum. The ongoing news of atrocities against civilians - the filtration camps being the latest horror - are only strengthening resolve for the very simple reason that is abundantly clear that there is no life after defeat, nor after a ceasefire or a settlement. The only way out is to boot the Russians out for good and put up a defence that cannot ever be breached again.
The West has been slow in providing both material military aid and in forcing through hard and crippling sanctions. Mixed messaging about Russia’s chances of winning the war also do not help, Boris. Europeans were right to believe after WWII that ‘never again’ actually meant something, a notion that was shredded to pieces in blood soaked Srebrenica. Maybe, maybe now we can think of a ‘never again’ scenario but the facts on the ground and president’s Zelensky’s messaging make it clear that we are still leaving it up to the Ukrainians to figure it out. Some have argued it is a deliberate western strategy to let the war slowly drain Russia. It may be and yesterday’s visit of the US secretaries of state and defence to Kyiv point to more engagement as weapon deliveries ramp up. It takes time to get political alignment. However I wonder how many reports like this we can stomach before we start a real push on material support that can help end the occupation and enable Ukraine to defend, roll back the aggressor and rebuild.
Liberal democracies are not in retreat. Far from it. They’re in pretty good shape and quite resilient as Macron’s re-election in France yesterday made clear. But they often suffer from indecision, conflicts of interest, oblivion when it comes to moral clarity and general spineless behaviour when real trouble comes calling. They will start to be in retreat if they let Ukraine bleed to death. We simply cannot let that happen.