Trump goes Saudi

And is leaving Israel on the sidelines as power shifts in the Middle East

It was perhaps an attempt to hold on to something that in the end would prove too good to be true. That somehow the new US administration would bring home the much coveted Saudi normalization of relations with Israel in return for which the kingdom would get all sorts of goodies, from weapons and security all the way to access to nuclear technology. Well, it will likely get all that, but there is nothing in it for Israel which, adding insult to injury, is not even on Trump’s itinerary for next week when he tours the Middle East.

On these pages I have always pointed out that Trump’s short-term transactional instincts, his love of deals and ego would pre-empt some more foundational foreign policy outcomes. It is part of Trump’s temperament, yes, and it interacts with the situation on the ground which has also shifted in a few material ways:

1. Iran is much less of a threat to Saudi Arabia following Israel degrading its air and missile defence systems and neutralizing Tehran-proxy Hezbollah;

2. What is more, key Iran regional ally Syria has all of sudden fallen into the hands of a Sunni-led regime and is now a viable partner for the Saudis;

3. Israel has shown zero appetite to make progress on ending the war in Gaza and making moves towards a two-state solution which were the two specific Saudi requests to make any normalization deal happen.

Now there is an argument that Israel could have avoided going all the way in this grand Middle Eastern bargain - originally conceived by team Biden - and string the Saudis along for a bit, but looking at it from Saudi eyes, Israel has gone in reverse by doubling down in Gaza.

What it means is that in all likelihood Trump will ink some key weapons and security deals in the Saudi capital next week after which he will visit the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. It also means that Nethanyahu and Israel have lost out on a rare and unique opportunity to establish closer relations with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, under crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (‘MBS’) have now given second thoughts to cozying up to Israel at the very moment that the latter has announced to ramp up the war in and occupation of Gaza (for which Trump admittedly had given the green light earlier).

Now there is a debate over the Israeli announcement to go all the way into Gaza, carve it up, possibly settle and move the local population once more. It may all be a pressure tool to push Hamas further into a corner, it may be driven by Nethanyahu for domestic political considerations to keep his coalition partners in check, we will have to see. No one is expecting a major Israeli military push into Gaza until Trump is well on his way back to Washington after his Arab tour is in the bag.

What it does mean is that there is less hope for the remaining 59 hostages of which 24 are still alive, but of whom a further 3 are feared to be no longer alive. There has been no more progress to discuss a release over the past few weeks with senior Israeli politicians emphasizing that the war in Gaza to destroy Hamas has precedence over the hostages at the moment. This has had, and this is not always fully reported in western media, a devastating impact on an ever more divided Israel. The unpopularity of Nethanyahu over October 7 and his unwillingness to allow a full national inquiry over what went wrong on that day are one thing, a Gaza war without end, a recall of reservists, pressure on the economy and subordinating the fate of the remaining hostages are putting unprecedented pressures on Israeli society. All these concerns find their way into the diaspora of course which doesn’t need any divisions given the pressures of increasing antisemitism.

Antisemitism in the West

The outbreak of Jew hate across the West has continued unabated with Israeli reports indicating that the country with the most dramatic increase in incidents of antisemitism is Canada. This has not gone unnoticed, in particular since the most recent federal election where it is feared that Canada’s new government is not all that well equipped to stem the tide of hate. In an article earlier this week Casey Babb wrote an important piece under the ominous title, A Pogrom Is Brewing in Canada. At the same time yours truly got interviewed for Dutch outlet ‘Antisemitism News’ here about the situation in Canada after the most recent elections (they will publish an English version shortly).

Yes, a lot depends on the will of political leaders to thwart the normalization of Jew hate in our streets and in Toronto and Montreal things in particular have been worrisome. Here in Vancouver less so, but that may also be thanks to a mayor who is not unwilling to speak out about it and support the local Jewish community. Last week during the weekly hostage rally Mayor Ken Sim dropped by spontaneously and grabbed the mike to do just that. Thank you Ken.

Photo: Trump meets MBS on the visit to Saudi Arabia during his first term in May 2017. Video of Ken Sim addressing the weekly Bring Them Home Now hostage rally in Vancouver on May 4, 2025, by Daphna Kedem.