The Waning Support for Ukraine

Political and economic woes across the West are doing their thing

At one point over the past few weeks it appeared that American support for Ukraine was quite solid in the House of Representatives with all Democrats in favour and about half of Republicans on the positive side. Clear enough, one would think. However the divisions in the GOP are such that its leadership was forced to broker a deal to keep government funded for 45-days with the proviso that all support for Ukraine during this period would be halted. It puts $6 billion in military aid at risk during this period. Now Biden may try to bring this back on the table once this temporary budget fix expires, or he could potentially use an executive order to keep some of these support measures alive. It is not clear just how it will all play out. What this episode does however is to show that even a minority in the US House of Representatives (half of the Republican caucus) can wield a level of power that severely disrupts established programs. Programs such as the delivery of military aid that many until a few weeks ago thought were immune from this sort of interference.

The same dynamics are playing themselves out on the other side of the ocean. This weekend Slovakia held elections and the winner is the pro-Russian populist Robert Fico. And although all attention in the West was on his position on the war in Ukraine, it appeared that Slovakians voters themselves were more interested in Fico’s socially conservative stance and the price of bread. It also remains to be seen if he can form a workable coalition to support his plans. Yet, Slovakia is seen as a bellwether when it comes to Eastern European politics - they were the first to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine last year - which are not just driven by the war, but equally by domestic political considerations. Only two weeks ago Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia banned food imports from Ukraine in attempt to shield its own agricultural sector from relatively cheaper Ukrainian imports.

There is no better example of how a domestic struggle can upset the efforts to keep Ukraine well-armed than Poland. The right-leaning government of the ‘Law and Justice’ party has been walking back some of its support in light of the pressures that the Polish are experiencing as a frontline state. That may also have been a ploy in the run-up to elections there in a few weeks’ time where they face the progressive opposition of the ‘Civic Coalition’ under former EU council president Donald Tusk. The latter however equally has a mixed track record when it comes to support for their Ukrainian neighbours as the party is mostly associated with its close ties to both Berlin and Moscow when it was in power almost ten years ago.

To be very clear, none of these countries have any vested interest in a strong Russia, which they have all experienced before and have the deep scars to show for it. Yet much like in a lot of Western democracies the paradigm of unfettered support for Ukraine in its fight with Russia is beginning to shift. Economic considerations and domestic power plays will reframe all of this while we are going into another cold winter with energy issues and a frozen battlefield. And remember it is happening on both sides of the ocean. Come January we will be in Iowa where the leading Republican contender for the presidency will build on the momentum that emerged from the House Republicans this week.

Zelensky’s blitz of western capitals got lots of great headlines and photo opps, but at no stage during this war has there been such a divided political landscape in these same cities.