The Long War
The outcome is uncertain, but the world is sinking deeper into this massive conflict
You may not feel it directly with summer on its way with busy patios and happy people everywhere, but there is a full on war raging in the heart of Europe. And despite some of the setbacks Ukraine has faced over the past few weeks - think the fall of Bakhmut - it appears that it is Russia that is beginning to run out of steam. As of last week the much predicted Ukrainian spring offensive appears to be getting underway, while western allies have given the go-ahead for Ukraine to start training on the F-16 fighter jets. War skeptics in US congress, which includes a significant number of Republicans are increasingly becoming supportive of the war effort and if none of this convinces you the tide is turning, be inspired by this Ukrainian recruitment video. If anything, it highlights the confidence the besieged nation has in this battle and the fight is ramping up.
That level of courage and determination is sorely lacking on the Russian side where infighting among the military leaders is rife, Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is the latest Kremlin icon to fall. With the pressure mounting and nothing stopping Ukraine from a full assault to attempt to retake the occupied areas including the Crimea, Putin is now facing a war that may indeed go into a direction where not only recently conquered territory may be lost, but where strategically located lands annexed in 2014 are exposed. If this scenario starts to play itself out, it will further corner Putin and likely force him to resort to more desperate measures. These can range from a full mobilization (not a very attractive option given domestic politics), stir up trouble in the Balkans (happening in Kosovo right now), bombing more civilian targets in Ukraine (also happening right now) and using nuclear threats (done before, not effective, China really does not like it, but still a dangerous move), and everything in between those four options.
A scorched earth battlefield with a slowly moving frontline may be what we get as a result this summer. And that means the main theatre of war remains a ‘meat grinder’ and it will also grind down weapon supplies on both sides, so much so that the US and NATO are facing seriously depleted arms stocks which in turn impacts fuelling other potential conflicts, think Taiwan-China.
So the war is deepening on all fronts and NATO is sinking deeper into this war to the point that the argument that this has effectively become a war between Russia and NATO is not very far off. And if you accept that, you are essentially underwriting the theory that we are sliding into a Third World War where things can only escalate further. With conventional arms only so far yes, but even China and India will have to pull hard to get Putin off the nuclear brink if things keep going poorly for him.
A reasonable prediction on February 24, 2022 would have been a Russian win or a partial Russian success followed by a diplomatic settlement. Yet in western nations only the far right and the far left are arguing to find a way to settle on a peace deal for which each of them is being excoriated as being “Putin lovers”. Maybe, but some may have quite reasonable fears that this thing is really beginning to get out of hand. It is a position that is not all that different from what Henry Kissinger who has been arguing for a settlement for quite a while now. The political mainstream is opting to double down and support Zelensky with ever more weaponry to bring about the only thing that can bring peace and that is Putin’s total defeat. It is now discussed openly without the diplomatic restraints we had before: Vlad needs to fall. It is a laudable goal yet it appears no one has thought through the unintended consequences of that strategy. It will be a hot summer in Europe with an escalating conflict with multiple possible outcomes that are very hard to predict.