The Long Haul
An increasingly brutal war, inconclusive talks and no easy way out
As we are now well into the third week of the Ukraine War, a number of trends are emerging and they may be able to point us to where things are going:
The Russian army lacks the efficiency and agility to win this war. So, they resort to brutal and escalating warfare which essentially means indiscriminate bombing and missile attacks where the majority of victims are civilians. Also: cracking down in captured areas.
Ukraine is very strong. The influx of weapons, support and money help bolster an incredibly strong will to see this through and if things go really bad to go down fighting. I keep hearing stories of people staying put in Kyiv and other places, insisting they will not be moved from the places they call home.
Talks are ongoing and we hear different things, but so far little progress is visible on the ground with evacuations coming to a halt and no real idea on the contours of a possible ceasefire arrangement.
The West, or NATO, is quite supportive of Ukraine and probably quietly underwriting the bill for eventual reconstruction with a possible long-term route to EU membership for Ukraine. But there is no direct military support, Ukraine is and will remain on its own for now.
But Russia has a strong homefront too. As I pointed out the other day any negotiation is hard given the perceived inequality of the two parties (one sees the other as a subservient province) but there are also more pressing domestic politics for Putin to consider, he has no proverbial offramp.
There are two things we are struggling with. The West’s response and Russia doubling down. They are unfortunately two sides of the same coin.
Let’s start with Russia. It will be essential for Putin to negotiate a ceasefire that is perceived by his fellow Russians as a ‘glorious win’. Think a victory parade on the Red Square in Moscow. This should be a win in the sense of a solid return on an incredible effort for all of Russia. And this endeavour is not trivial of course: thousands of body bags are now returning to the motherland which at the same time finds itself descending into an unprecedented economic malaise as a result of Western sanctions. Putin needs to deliver something that aligns with his rhetoric of a strong and revamped Russian empire. As long as they keep bombing and killing the illusion of a win can be maintained, but it also means a longer road to a satisfactory ceasefire. There are now legitimate fears of escalation to include Belarus, attacks close to the Polish border and bringing in troops from Chechnya. We may not realize this, but the Russians are still fighting the Great Patriotic War, the war we called World War II and which we believed settled things maybe once and for all. Putin’s Russia is still in the middle of it and despite a deep economic and financial crisis there may well be reservoirs among the average Russian to take this mission on with the spirit of their greatest generation. Russian TV apparently is ramping up for what is to come with some examples of that historic conflict.
In western democracies we lack the ability to revive a spirit of war for the good of all, we are acutely aware of nuclear threats and are keenly aware of the risks. We pick wars that we think are winnable and are for a common good (Bosnia) and when they fail (Afghanistan, Iraq and yes, Vietnam) we check out. Any brutal dictator will exploit these sentiments to the fullest and that is how we got here, Putin was effectively never checked or stopped and Iran and China are quite possibly on similar trajectories.
So should we stay on this track and not intervene? Should we not hint at the incredible force we have? Can we all stand by when families are slaughtered and refugees are starving? When mayors are kidnapped and tortured ? Many are arguing that an infinitely more aggressive and confrontational approach, short of foreshadowing our arsenal with deadly warheads, might be the way go. Gary Kasparov is one of them, not only is he an expert, but as one of the world’s best chess players ever he has no doubt thought through a possible sequence of events. His core point: if we keep playing the same game, we keep getting the same results. And in this case we are inviting an ever more emboldened Putin to keep raising the stakes, his backside covered by the Russian myth and an electorate that is quite willing to deal with times of hardship. In this scenario the idea that the oligarchs who are losing billions every week will just push Vladimir out the door is not all that credible, it is a wishful thinking routine.
Ergo, Putin is not exactly winning, but he is far from losing the game. He is able enough, uncontrolled and will raise the stakes continuously. It is a long game and with it Ukraine will suffer even more while NATO, the EU and western governments will look increasingly impotent. That is the outcome if we all agree that mass slaughter in our backyard is something we can look away from and we’re safe behind our NATO protected border. It’s a strategy and for many it will be a viable option. In some circles it will be seen as a foreign policy success: we managed to stay out of it. And Putin will eke out a win, a bloody one, but a win nonetheless.
Look, I am not arguing for all out war. I do think we will need a settlement that will stop the fighting and that will give Ukraine a measure of peace and protection. But western democracies need to start playing their hand far more forcefully and take some risks in engaging Russia. More direct military support is one, opening up refugees corridors with air cover is another. At the same time more clever diplomatic maneuvering may help change the game on the ground. Signalling to China that there are consequences for them too may help peel away some of Putin’s layers of support. It would also serve notice on China to not try anything fanciful right now. Ukraine which was the major battlefield eighty years ago is again turning into a morass of blood. Putin is ready for it, but there are a number of ways to paralyze his efforts. Let’s take them seriously and save things while we still can.
Photos: Ukraine president Zelensky visiting wounded troops in the hospital on Sunday, March 13, 2022. In the other Aleksandr Marshal and Valeria Kurnushkina performing ‘Katyusha’ a few years ago. The song is the patriotic Russian war song synonymous with Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. Look at the girl’s uniform, it is straight out of Stalin’s Red Army.