The Isolationist Impulse
The political show that is the US today is reshaping the world
All eyes of the world are on today’s arraignment of Donald Trump in New York and if you are reading this the show is probably well on its way. Ever since the news was released there has been non-stop media debate on it, on what it means and what could potentially happen to a former US president who has now entered the race for the White House again, only to find himself in a criminal proceeding. What we have been treated with so far are endless scenarios that I won’t bore you with, but also some more incisive comment on how the never ending Trump show is actually benefitting from the indictment. Millions have been raised from Trump supporters, his approval ratings have shot up and yesterday we could witness how he made his way to the Florida airport, as well his arrival in New York where his motorcade delivered him on his old address at Fifth Avenue. It was the same ridiculous show that was put on when he was airlifted out of the White House for his Covid treatment using Marine One.
It should be noted that the spike in support for Trump is largely from the Republican base, so it does not mean that all of a sudden he is competitive again nationwide. But it does point to a dynamic where he is well ahead of other more electable Republican would-be nominees, notably Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (also known as the “Trump with Brains”) and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor who was smart enough to distance herself from Trump early on. In a normally functioning political universe Haley, who ticks all boxes you’d expect, would be the GOP frontrunner. Not now however.
Over the weekend it became clear once more that we are outside any parameters that could be considered normal. Look at this exchange between Tucker Carlson and Glenn Beck, in another universe long ago much calmer and smart CNN commentators. Although they are not wrong about America’s predicament and potential demise, it is the tone and the outright panic mode that they are promoting as a backdrop to Trump’s arraignment that makes you wonder if America is really losing it. Also this weekend 60 Minutes’ Leslie Stahl interviewed one of Trump’s key captains in Congress, Marjorie Taylor Greene. Known for her extreme positions, she exercises quite a bit of influence over the congressional GOP which in turn controls the purse strings for, for instance, continued support of Ukraine. CBS was berated by some for platforming Taylor Greene. Not so much because of her wilder views on US politics, but the congresswoman is quite able to articulate positions that do appeal to mainstream America. If you viewed this segment in isolation it actually makes sense and is no different from what Henry Kissinger has been saying about Ukraine all along. In other words, the Trumpian movement may well be making inroads into the political centre such that a close race in 2024 could see him back as president on January 20, 2025.
Note how the Trump GOP is pushing an isolationist narrative: no more overseas US wars and a clear threat to pull out of NATO. Again, it plays well on the right, but also on the left where the disastrous conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan have left deep marks. In my last briefing I alluded to Biden needing a solution for Ukraine sooner rather than later and it is this dynamic that is currently driving a reshape of US foreign policy. All of this is duly noted in Beijing and Moscow and it is quite possible we will see a re-run of foreign influence during the 2024 US elections. Sure, presidential elections are mostly won on domestic issues first, then foreign policy. But if you watch the crazy show in New York today do remember that it drives the direction of the debate in America and that does impact overseas affairs, America’s standing in the world and thus ultimately the safety and stability that we have taken for granted for the last seventy years. It’s all being threatened.