The China Protests
Happening, but unclear as to where they are going
The moment we thought Xi Jinping was unassailable and had reached the pinnacle of his power, the chants demanding he steps down are being heard across some major Chinese cities. The trigger was a fire in a building in Ürümqi, Xinjiang province, that killed ten people which was attributed to China’s ‘zero Covid’ approach. Lockdowns are so aggressively enforced that fire escapes from buildings are often blocked and apparently the emergency services were also slow to move. China’s perfidy when it comes to Covid is so extreme that it has even been obscuring images of fans during the world cup in Qatar in order to prevent its citizens from noticing they are not wearing masks.
The protests spread across a number of Chinese cities and in many places the authorities predictably cracked down violently. In Shanghai BBC journalist Ed Lawrence was assaulted and forcefully detained and although now released it makes it clear that no one is safe in China right now.
And no, these protests are not necessarily in response to the unattainable ‘zero Covid’ policies although the idea of pursuing such a thing no matter the human cost is of course the hallmark of unfettered authoritarianism. No, much like death of Hu Yaobang in April 1989 that sparked the Tiananmen protests, China’s freedom movement needed an accelerant and it was the deadly fire that proved to be it. And fully aware of the danger of resisting and protesting the young Chinese are using blank pieces of paper to show their grievances and quest for freedom. It has already made its mark on the various support rallies that took place globally, this one in Vancouver last night:
Look, it is too early to say where this will go. Our most recent datapoints come from Hong Kong where during the advent of Covid the protests were ruthlessly suppressed. Same in Moscow where the initial resistance to the Ukraine War was quickly stamped out. And then in Iran where people still stand strong against a regime that is unlikely to bend over and go, but at the cost of deaths, mass arrests and torture. It is a dark scenario but these events prove that the Chinese are very aware of their predicament and very capable of trying to improve it. It took over thirty years since the violent crackdown on Tiananmen Square and a real humanitarian crisis to get things moving again. Social media and global attention are no doubt playing a role in this outburst of genuine anger and calls to end a dictatorship.
This in particular is the case given that China is now the third regime after Russia and Iran in a short period of time that will feel the combination of both domestic and international pressure. None of these governments will compromise or bow out, they will double down with all its bloody consequences at home and abroad.