The Attempt

Political instability creates violence and no democracy is immune from it

It was bound to happen at some point. The biggest surprise probably was that Trump survived his first term without any attempt on his life, but yesterday in Butler, Pennsylvania the inevitable happened. Some militant nutcase had received enough cues to think that the November election had tilted sufficiently into Trump’s favour to try and give it a desperate and serious attempt to end it all. It failed and the opposite was likely accomplished with Trump gaining incredible mileage and support with many including Elon Musk rushing to endorse the former president for another term. It reminded me of Reagan who barely survived a similar assassination attempt in 1981. Weeks later he walked out of the hospital full of confidence and with a broad smile and it boosted his popularity to incredible heights. Americans love this, the overcoming of deep adversity and the display of raw character strength. AP photographer Evan Vucci’s iconic picture (above) will be the defining one of this campaign and it will be for many more years to come.

You will be treated to endless assessments, conspiracy theories and other interpretations of what went to down at the campaign event yesterday. It is too early to make a call as much of this is a developing story. But what we do know is that targeted shootings like this occur in certain political environments, in a heavily charged atmosphere of social conflict where it is almost guaranteed that someone will feel justified to grab a gun and act. And so it was the case this time. It is foolish to point to the Democrats or even to Biden as the culprits, yet it is quite plausible to point to those that have created an atmosphere wherein an attack like this could happen.

Consider this. The late Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn who was shot by an animal rights activist in 2002, pointed out in an ominous interview ahead of his murder what the dynamics were that had created the climate for his eventual death. With subtitles in English:

So yes, we have been building up this moment with the effective demonization of Donald Trump resulting in The New Republic magazine running a cover last week comparing the GOP nominee to Hitler. The same fate befell Fortuyn who not long before his death was compared to Benito Mussolini in a major newspaper. Even George Bush fell prey to these perilously inept comparisons, remember “Bushitler”? It is dangerous territory as it provides a license to some that will readily believe that violence is now justified.

With relentless media attacks and endless lawsuits nothing was left untouched as a tool to try and put an end to Trump’s march to a second term in the White House. Nothing worked, on the contrary, all the publicity, no matter how negative, has appeared to be working in Trump’s favour. The last line of defence was Biden, the one man to actually defeat Trump in 2020 and when he failed a few weeks ago in the momentous debate debacle, all bets were off. And so it was for Fortuyn where on the day of his murder Dutch newspapers announced he was on his way to become the next Dutch prime minister. Only a bullet could turn the tide. And it did.

Context

Now, Trump added $8 trillion to the US debt during his first term, a 40% increase, while being obsessed about his image and spending long days tweeting and screaming at the TV. With his Supreme Court nominations he tweaked America’s balance of power a bit, and his foreign policy adventures were often informed by financial incentives rather than long term political gains. None of that makes someone a fascist. He’s not even a conservative in the traditional meaning of the word. At best, Trump is a transactional authoritarian, at worst a divisive populist. He has proven to not be able define an ideology that is so encompassing as fascism is, nor is his first time in office any indication that he can actually govern effectively or worse, end democracy. His second term might be different, but it is too early to tell.

Going by the poll numbers many Americans now actually prefer a changed direction after four years of Biden. That’s democracy. And the fight should be at the ballot box and in debates.

What is next?

The one thing America needs above all is de-escalation and unity, but it is safe to say that until election day neither are likely to materialize. Voices from both sides will ramp up the rhetoric following yesterday’s events and try to score political points over this. This may open the door to further violence which some will now feel entitled to use. The Democrats who had a huge setback following Biden’s debate showing are now dealt a second blow with Trump’s iconic resurrection after being shot at. Some anticipate ever more party infighting to replace Biden, but the old man may actually strengthen his hand by being calm and projecting unity at this point in time. The Republicans will double down, but must be careful to not overplay their now winning hand, there are almost four months and two big conventions still ahead of us. Even the most seasoned political operative will have to rewrite the playbook for this because anything can happen right now.

And yes, the real loss of this will be the damage to America’s stature in the world. Distractions from being the global power broker and ever deepening internal divisions will translate into receding western power. Democracy is in retreat globally and yesterday’s attempt on Trump’s life is evidence that it is too for Americans at home. It will be a huge tour-de-force for whoever wins this election to rebuild that.