Sunsetting Biden

The Midterm elections will have a profound impact on America and the world

There is of course no way to avoid the US elections tomorrow, the temperature on most of my news and social media feeds has been rising and with good reason. All of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs as are 35 Senate seats (out of 100) and no less than 36 governorships. The Midterms are usually a referendum on how the incumbents are doing and are an opportunity for voters to point its leaders into a new direction.

Of course, there is an incredible blend of national and local issues that will have different impacts on different races. The overall mood in America today is far from optimistic and the president’s popularity rankings are on the low end of the scale. The key issues animating voters are inflation, the economy generally and increasing crime. There is of course also the post-Covid hangover and immigration, the latter will have more of an impact on races in Texas and Arizona. Then there are the more specific cultural issues such as abortion, school choice and increasingly woke politics. Although Ukraine and China have come up, this is foremost a domestic election where voters turn out on issues that have a direct impact on their daily lives. But isolationist sentiments will impact foreign policy in the end: Putin is watching closely.

With the Biden administration currently having a majority in both houses of congress the expectations is that the House will now flip to the Republicans. With a lot of close races, the Senate too could be moved from the ‘blue’ to the ‘red’ column. At the same time some notable governorships are being contested and polls project a few pickups by the GOP. Taken together it is clear that a potentially seismic shift could take place tomorrow evening once the results start coming in. If this holds up, what does that mean? A few key things:

Biden’s Sunset - Moving legislation through a friendly congress is hard, moving it through one controlled by the opposition is nigh impossible. This is the ‘lame duck’ scenario that could be exacerbated if Biden chooses not to run for president in 2024. If he doesn’t he is just marking time in the White House. Note that Lyndon Johnson was in 1968 the last sitting president to announce he would not run again for a second term. This is a scenario that, given Biden’s dwindling support, his age and the apparent decline of his physical and mental fitness for office will make the next two years highly unproductive for the Democrats. It is not a stretch to say that the projected election outcome will effectively start to sunset Uncle Joe.

The Presidential Election - It is good tradition that not long after the midterms the jockeying for the presidential elections start. In order to avoid unnecessary turbulence in local races, the Republicans have tried very hard to keep Trump from making any announcements for November 2024 and so far he has been relatively quiet on the subject. That will change as early as tomorrow as there will likely be nothing to stop him for announcing and start dominating the news cycles again. Given the strong grasp he has on his party it means that other potential contenders (Florida Governor DeSantis for instance, dubbed the ‘Trump with brains’) will face an uphill struggle to move their bids forward. It also means that on the Democratic side the ‘who after Biden’ debate will likely start sooner rather than later. The party has all but ditched Kamala Harris as unelectable material, so the race for a new Democratic presidential nominee will be wide open. Here’s a collection of possible contenders for that and yes, even Hillary Clinton’s name is bandied around again.

Party Identities Change - In a country as large and diverse as America it is never easy to allocate a fluctuating electorate into distinct partisan boxes. Yet, the Republicans are increasingly becoming a coalition of multi-racial working class voters while Democrats are now more aligned with upscale voters concerned about gun control and abortion. It is a true seismic shift. Add to this the MAGA-fication of the Republicans where hardcore right-wing candidates are increasing their presence and agendas. People like Marjorie Taylor Greene are no longer fringe curiosities, they are rapidly becoming mainstream. This in turn will have the Democrats scrambling for a clear direction and party identity as the 2024 presidential elections loom large over the nation. The Democratic bet on climate, cultural issues and inflation-inducing economic policies will be rejected by the voters tomorrow. A period of Democratic soul searching will no doubt have to follow.

Looking at it from a distance there are two parties in the US today: one that is increasingly traditional and isolationist and one that has unwisely bet on hardcore left-of-centre policies. The middle is evaporating and it is turning America into an ever more polarized society that keeps looking inward. The political will to engage internationally is steadily being undermined and this will have long-term consequences for the power balance in the world. US politics is always high on entertainment value. But when you take in the results tomorrow realize that we will all feel the impact of a torn nation trying to find a new direction.

Photo: Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Arizona governor campaigning.