Rolling Back Russia
Ukraine's counter offensive is yielding results, but the hardest part it yet to come
Excitement, that is the best way to summarize the news reports this weekend where Ukrainian forces made a major breakthrough in the country’s northeast, close to Kharkiv. It was a massive rollback of Russian forces. The counter-offensive in that very area was a calculated move as the Russians were shifting troops and material to the strategically more important Kherson area in the south which had also come under Ukrainian attack. Zelensky’s troops saw the opportunity and pounced.
So this has yielded important terrain gains for Ukraine and it has dealt a significant blow to Russian morale while lifting spirits in Kyiv. There is evidence that western weapon deliveries and intelligence sharing are now also starting to yield real results. With that the arguments for a ceasefire will become ever harder: the moment to double down and force a real pushback on all fronts is there with Ukraine making the progress everyone supporting it wanted. There are two caveats, however.
One is the military situation. As easy as Ukraine waltzed into the Kharkiv Oblast, as hard it will be to break through Russian defence lines that access the Crimea and Azov Sea. As mentioned these are the areas in Ukraine’s south where Russia has beefed up and you can bet that these will be defended at all cost.
The other area of concern is that the recent defeats could create an entirely different dynamic in Russia itself. Putin is now openly challenged by local politicians in St. Petersburg and Moscow and on Russia TV things are starting to think in:
But we all know what humiliation and defeat can do, in particular to embattled dictators. They will lash out and can use the most destructive tools at their deposal, both at home and in the theatre of war. They could however, in the best case, be replaced by moderates who seek reform, compromise and peace. Or they could be shoved aside by real hardliners which we know have been waiting to make their move as their frustrations with Putin’s poorly executed war have mounted. The latter remains an outside if real threat. So yes, we can find hope in progress and enjoy the upbeat reports from the Ukrainian front, but caution is warranted. This war will go on for a while and unexpected events like this week’s gains could easily be interrupted by equally unanticipated turns on the front and in Moscow. Stay tuned.