Recognize What?

Deep global cultural and moral forces are shaping the war in Gaza. Narratives that bring further discord and violence to our streets.

It was inevitable after Macron’s move last week that some other nations would jump in and offer the same reward to Hamas. Yesterday British PM Keir Starmer even went a step further in a sort of cruel way, the Brits will now recognize a Palestinian state:

“unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, reaches a ceasefire, makes clear there will be no annexation in the West Bank, and commits to a long-term peace process that delivers a two state solution"

It tilts the hostage and ceasefire negotiations in such a way that Hamas can now sit back and lay down the terms of a new ceasefire deal assuming Israel will want to avoid a Palestinian entity recognized by the UK. And as a bonus there is also the condition that Israel has to rescind its claims on the West Bank.

Israel will, and that is almost guaranteed, not acquiesce to this diabolic British move, if only because it shook off the colonial hands of Albion before, in 1948. And that means that the onus will likely be back on Starmer to pull the recognition trigger in September, because otherwise he would not look all that credible. And it should be noted that this scenario could potentially unfold without Hamas or the Palestinian Authority delivering anything substantial in return.

And from there things potentially could only get worse: Nethanyahu does not have to face his parliament until later in October giving him a relatively free hand to ramp up the war, Hamas will know its ploy to get western support works and consequently the fighting and humanitarian chaos are likely to continue. And all of that resulting misery can and will in turn be leveraged to further pressure Israel. It will just get worse, for the Gazans, for the hostages and for the entire Middle East.

Now it is interesting to note that other large European nations like Germany and Italy have not made any moves in this direction. Trump has, as expected, pointed out that there simply is no point in rewarding Hamas. More than ever we are seeing a left-right split on the war in Gaza and on support for what is a democratic ally, the state of Israel.

Why?

If indeed the move to recognize a Palestinian state is handing Hamas a win and if indeed it can further disrupt negotiations, then why are we witnessing this cascade of leaders falling over themselves to make this unwise move?

A core reason is plain and simple political calculus which comes in a few layers. On the one hand there are countries like France and the UK with a growing Muslim population who are no longer to be neglected come election time. Left-of-center parties have aggressively been courting these voters and delivering on Gaza is no small part of this. But the entire mood in most western democracies is now so driven by the imagery of humanitarian disaster and politicians of all stripes are inclined to feel an urgent obligation to speak out. You are quite brave to argue the counter side of a hungry child and most politicians are very reluctant to go there.

And it means condemning Israel, whatever the factual basis or the undesirable long-term outcomes. The imagery as we discussed late last week is often manipulated to get these results, so much so that the New York Times yesterday had to walk back publishing a photo of an emaciated Gazan child.

Too little, too late. The photos and accompanying story was used by many more news outlets and dominated social media for days. Try and walk that back. You can’t.

But the damage is more far reaching than one would imagine. Some pointed out on social media that the image of a mother cradling a starving child can be viewed as a pietà, Mary cradling a suffering Christ figure. It is not my intent to draw a direct line between the church and anti-semitism - no need to cancel your subscription just yet - but you can see how deep and archaic religious sentiments can be stirred by this imagery. Yes, a radical Islamist movement can re-ignite medieval Christian superstitions in their efforts to recapture Jerusalem in the 21st century.

And to take it one step further, anti-semitism flourishes in societies that are adrift, societies where for instance economic inequality and growing wealth gaps risk destabilizing the social contract that underpin free capitalist societies. Whatever you read in the media as to the motives of the killer, Monday’s shooting spree at investment management firm BlackRock in New York ended up killing five people, two of whom were Jewish. Anti-establishment agendas and anti-semitism are trusted partners. They were in the lead up to the Russian revolution, and they were essential in bringing Hitler to power. And here they are again, hand in hand, taking people away in the prime of their lives while calling for a revolution. In both Gaza and here.

Hostage Rallies

And that brings us back to the hostages and how their story interacts with the feelings on the street in any North American city. At our weekly hostage rally at a busy intersection in Vancouver we are experiencing an increasing number of incidents, here’s an ominous one.

Last Sunday we had a family, in a brand new Acura and all well-dressed, with open windows, driving by. The man was behind the wheel and the woman sitting next to him flew, upon seeing us, into a raging fit. Screaming at the hostage rally, dropping f-bombs non-stop, totally beside herself. She was almost frothing at the mouth and I leave it to your imagination as to what came out of it. The troubling piece however was the kids in the back. They looked at us in silent amazement wondering what on earth had set their mother off into this raging frenzy. The idea of walking up and imply that she should calm down and consider being referred to child services crossed my mind, but alas and probably for the better, the police stepped in and urged the family to drive on. Cooler heads prevailed. But it is one more exhibit of how relentless media campaigns and disinformation poison the wells of our once tolerant societies. And the next generation is dragged along in the process.

Photos: UK PM Keir Starmer. The NYT correcting its earlier news reports. The hostage rally in Vancouver last Sunday, note the lone ‘Free Palestine’ supporter on the curb, at about the same spot where the raging mother appeared earlier.