Realigning the Left and Right

France, Britain, The Netherlands and the US are experiencing interesting but also worrying electoral trends

It has been a busy week: summer is here, family was visiting, finance business is ongoing and we even had a nice detour to Canada’s pre-eminent wine country, the Okanagan. So apologies for the radio silence, but as of today I am back at it. The world is in flux so lets to discuss, here we go.

France

Yes, after the two rounds it became clear late Sunday according to most media that the left-wing bloc (New Popular Front) won, with Macron centrists (Ensemble) losing and Marine Le Pen’s far-right (Rally National) not claiming its projected win. The reality however is that both the left side or the right side won and that Macron’s centre crumbled. Just look at this summary of the results:

In terms of the popular vote it was Le Pen’s party that was able to capture the largest chunk with 37%, it is just that the district system frustrated them getting more seats in a parliament where no one can command a majority now. Note that the newly formed left bloc is far from a unified entity with many internal divisions, so Macron is now presiding over an unstable political framework with no clear plan to install a functioning cabinet that can get majority parliamentary support. This means two unstable years until the next presidential election in 2027 where Le Pen may well capitalize on the momentum her party got over the past few elections, the left’s divisions and Macron’s steady demise.

United Kingdom

With barely 34% of the votes, Labour was able to secure a large majority in Westminster in which they effectively ended the incredibly inept Conservative who after 14 years in power failed to inspire the British voters. But note that Labour’s success is a marginal one, they only increased their share of the vote by a mere 1.6%:

So Sir Keir Starmer has won an absolute mandate in seats (412 out of 577), but the popular back up for this is relatively small. The pro-Brexit and right-leaning Reform UK party got into parliament with only four seats, but with 14.3% in popular support. Labour is expected to steer a careful and centrist approach and will not try and undo Brexit, it will merely fine-tune some of the harder edges of the conservative legacy.

The Dutch

The long awaited right-of-centre coalition engineered by election winner Geert Wilders as the power behind the throne finally was able to be installed formally last week. Its first week was wild with divisive and unruly debates in the lower house where the newly minted prime minister Dick Schoof was completely unprepared for the hefty opposition attacks that centred on the anti-immigration stance of some of his key ministers. He was also not prepared for these very ministers to start tweeting about it all and the ensuing spectacle was unworthy of a functioning democracy.

Who was to blame? The opposition left or the government right? In all likelihood, both and it goes to show that with more radical elements making their way into elected positions it will be hard to focus on the issues. It will create ever more division.

United States

With Europe scrambling for direction in a time when Russia is again stepping up its bloody war in Ukraine - yesterday’s attacks were gruesome and referred to the UN - , the question is again where the US will land over the next few months. Some 10 days after Biden’s election debate debacle the president is becoming ever more strident on seeing it through into a second term. His family is driving this process, but his party’s base however is far from sure, in fact a majority thinks he should go. The moment big donors put real pressure on Biden to step back (from the candidacy, not the presidency) things will change rapidly and some influential players have already presented a scenario on how this could potentially work.

Trump meanwhile is enjoying the lift he got out of the debate while softening the GOP’s platform on in particular abortion. It is a sign of how Trumpism is now entering mainstream and preparing itself to fight the November election. With only four months to go they are getting more and more ready while the Democrats have, realistically speaking, not even settled on who will be their nominee.

So?

Is there a pattern? Yes there is although in each country local conditions impact the political trends. But it is safe to say that the traditional political centre is fraying and that on both the right and the left more radical positions are going mainstream while clocking up some interesting electoral wins. The biggest concern all of us should have is how these are dividing western democracies at a time when its enemies from Russia to China to Iran are making serious headway in reshaping our world. And yes, that is what is playing out on the battlefields in Ukraine and Israel right now. More of that in the weeks ahead as I will pick up my regular schedule here on the newsletter.