Potential Game Changer

In a risky move Ukraine launches a surprise assault into Russia

Some readers approach me and kindly mention they started actively following this newsletter because of Ukraine. And yes, the newsletter got a major boost when that war started in early 2022, but it has since been taken over by many other developments as you all know. That said, it was always clear that Ukraine is part of the larger global puzzle and last week things there moved forward in a totally unexpected and indeed dramatic way.

Ukraine launched a major military incursion into Russia, crossing the border into the Kursk region with multiple armoured vehicles and a few thousand troops. The numbers are a little bit all over the place - the entire attack was shrouded in secrecy - but now a week into the attack it is clear that over a 1,000 square kilometres have been captured including some eighty villages with an unspecified number of Russians soldiers that have been taking captive. Ukrainian forces are still on the move deeper into Russian territory as we speak. There are also large evacuations of civilians taking place although a lot of them are not that displeased with developments, they’re not exactly Putin-lovers.

The question to ask is why Zelensky did not order his troops into this direction earlier as it serves multiple and useful goals for him. First, opening a new arena of hostilities will likely force Russian troops to vacate positions it has in occupied Ukraine and move to the homefront and thereby opening up offensive opportunities for the Ukrainians. Secondly, captured territory can provide a bargaining chip for Ukraine if peace negotiations are to take place. But the overarching rationale is that this is an incredibly humiliating swipe at Putin and therein also lies a significant risk: it may provoke Russia to ramp up the war and engage in similar and more lethal moves deeper into Ukraine which will escalate the war further. It is not a stretch to argue that Ukraine’s war cabinet’s bold move is therefore a huge gamble.

From an international perspective it was interesting to note that team Zelensky managed to keep the incursion a secret from the US and its allies. Most likely this was done to avoid the risk of having to disclose ahead of the event that Ukraine would be deploying western-supplied weaponry, the use of which is restricted to defensive activity on Ukrainian. Using American equipment to roll into Russia is not something the Biden administration needs right now or at any other time. In an utterly hypocritical move Russia wasted no time to call out the international community at the UN for what it viewed as an unwarranted attack on its territory and civilians.

So yes, this is a risky move and it shows that Ukraine essentially ran out of options to force a breakthrough in the areas Russia has occupied since the war has started. We will have to see if the move yields the desired results by weakening the Russian effort. The real danger in my mind is that if this incursion runs its course and Russia launches a counter-attack then Ukraine all of a sudden will have to defend a much wider front line with a possibly diminished resource base and potentially less international support than before their waltz into the Kursk area. It may be the beginning of an end phase in this terrible and bloody war.

Photo: Zelensky’s war cabinet convenes. The guy dialling in on the screen is Ukraine’s chief military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi.