Politics and Age

Deng, Biden and how effective can leaders really be at an advanced age?

For some reason I have always been fascinated by aging politicians and their ability to change the course of history at an advanced age. Reagan is a great example, but also Deng Xiaoping. The latter had to work his way through many ups and downs to finally grab the reins of power in China at age seventy-six. He continued his rule pretty much until the day he died at age ninety-two in early 1997. He held power in such a way that he did not have to submit himself to a gruelling schedule the way US leaders do. And of course in China there are no elections and no need to keep track of what is going on at cable news or on Twitter. But the absence of elections did not mean Deng could rest on his laurels as various factions in the Chinese leadership were always vying for power. He governed from his modest courtyard house where government officials would turn up with files which he dutifully consumed and signed or held meetings over and made decisions. And after lunch an afternoon nap of course. As age advanced his status had risen to such an extent that he could leave matters of state to the new leaders and would ‘signal’ policy by some symbolic acts. His 1992 walk with his daughter through Shenzhen signalled China’s embrace of free markets at a point where Deng could barely hear a word and bystanders had a hard time understanding what he was saying. Yet his mere presence moved a nation forward.

There is no such thing in American politics. If Joe Biden makes it to the White House in January 2021 he will be subject to a gruelling schedule of meetings, travel, briefings and round the clock activity, not to mention 24/7 press coverage. And he will have to manage the various factions in the Democratic Party. The aging Biden so far has been saved by the lockdown and spared an intense campaign and it is clear to all that he may not have the reservoirs of energy and alertness that Obama for instance brought to the job.

So if he wins, what sort of government can we expect? It is inevitable that delegation to a strong team around him will take place and Joe may slide into this grandfatherly role where he sets out the broad direction and adopts a ‘Deng style’ distant role. Kamala Harris may become a ‘de facto’ head of government, but others in the administration may be able to wiggle themselves into the power vacuum. Given the turbulence of the last few years and the pull in many directions this may pose a serious risk for coherent policies at home and abroad. A lot will depend on the ability of Biden to protect authority and leverage the trust and mandate that Americans may give him.

So yes, we still are five weeks away from a contentious election, but I could not resist looking ahead a bit.