One Year in Ukraine

Th war is devastating a nation and reshaping the world

One year ago I was scrolling Twitter and from one moment to the next the reports started coming in: Russia had launched its attack. Despite all hopes and endless diplomatic efforts (remember Macron?), Putin had embarked on the one thing we did not think possible by unleashing a major war of aggression in the heart of Europe. Our disbelief said it all. Most of us looked at the world through the prism of the 1990s, we would all happily integrate and trade and the authoritarian rogues in our worlds, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran would eventually reform and become part of our free world where the democracy, the rule of law and economic freedom were the essential ingredients of human success. It was hard to imagine and see the world through the eyes of others, simple as that.

A New World Order

Russia and China played along, each in their own way reaping the rewards of the global market place, but they never signed up for the rules based world order that we imagined they had. And they couldn’t, because it would have meant for them to subordinate their interests and their political needs to those of the world at large. And after the initial shock of a resilient Ukraine where China suddenly realized you can’t grab a piece you think is yours (the Ukraine-Taiwan analogy); it also decided to not drop Russia as a partner. Far from it, this week many reports emerged over potential weapon deliveries from China to Russia as part of a closer embrace of the two nations forming a counterweight to the US and its partners.

Yes, the Ukraine War has reshaped the world. That is the core conclusion one year from the start of the hostilities. We’ve seen a reinvigorated NATO (with potential new members states Sweden and Finland signing up), a reframed energy policy (Europe reducing its dependence on Russia) and an America that will commit to see Ukraine not lose this war. Biden’s historic walkabout in Kyiv this week is evidence that the US will keep supporting the embattled Ukrainian nation, although it remains to be seen for how long, how deep and how effective that help will be in the end. With China cozying up to Putin it can only mean that the West will harden its stance on President Xi which in turn will probably deliver some unexpected economic outcomes. The maps are being redrawn and there is no going back to the model we all were dreaming of in the 1990s. It’s too early to see a World War breaking out, but you can see the new contours of our world and how the battle lines of an eventual global armed conflict are being drawn up.

A Ravaged Nation

Because with whatever Washington, Brussels and Beijing are sending to the cratered landscape of Ukraine, it is a proxy war where the larger powers avoid any direct confrontation and resulting damages. Those are for the ordinary Ukrainians to take, and the numbers are staggering. And that is not just the war-related casualties, we also have to factor in the missing citizens, remember all the abducted children. And that is the direct human cost, the economic tally truly beggars belief.

These numbers also raise the very fundamental question what Ukraine’s reservoirs of reserves are and how that compares to Russia’s resource pool. Zelensky’s calls for support make it clear what Ukraine needs on the battlefield to win as all the support to date does not give the nation what it takes to actually win. And in a war of attrition that is now being fought Putin does have an edge as he can claim endless human resources that at the very least gives his inferior war machine an edge over an opponent with limited resources. That’s how Stalin ultimately won and it is not unthinkable that Putin may come out stronger in the months ahead, purely on the basis of numbers. He has got total control over his population and all those international sanctions have not really worked the magic they were expected to bring. They were also being circumvented and ignored. This takes us back to the need for the US and Europe giving game changing military gear to alter the dynamics of the conflict. It has yet to happen.

There is a suspicion on multiple fronts that despite the public persona Biden is not prepared to move this conflict forward ‘all the way’ with more advanced arms such as fighter jets and missiles. Putin on the ropes could spur the very help from China referred to above and a determination by the authoritarian axis to put everything on the table including deploying nuclear options. In a way the US and China benefit from the meat grinding status quo as it does not call on them to ratchet up their involvement with a resulting devastating global destabilization.

If we have learned one thing the last year is that all players have moved forward on their intents and ambitions, but only incrementally. The goals have not changed. Russia still wants Ukraine, Ukraine wants its territory back, the West wants that too while boxing in and defanging Putin, while China wants a weaker West and a stronger but not overly dangerous Russia. None of these objectives are compatible or bridgeable which means there is not even a basic blueprint for a peace deal on the table. The people of Ukraine are thus paying an incredible toll for a shifting global order. It has been a terrible spectacle to watch over the past twelve months and there is no end in sight.