Nothing has changed

Europe's dark undercurrents are back in force

While the entire world was shocked by the images coming out of Bucha this weekend, we did not get to see something we did not expect. The sparse reports out of Mariupol and the rhetoric from Moscow all point to a clear intent to decimate Ukraine not just as a functioning state, but as a nation of real people. The exact same thing happened in the 1930s and 1940s where Ukraine at first was deemed to be an enemy to be starved and terrorized, then after Hitler had his turn for a few years it was Stalin’s turn to re-establish the murderous fist. This routine by the way extended to the Polish and Belorussian nations in pretty much the same vein. If you want to get a feel for the numbers, check out Timothy Snyder’s book Bloodlands where you will see that Stalin and Hitler sort of collaborated in delivering in the tens of millions of dead bodies across Eastern Europe.

What is somewhat difficult to understand is that what we are witnessing now is not an aberration, but a re-emergence of conflict resolution Russian style. The Soviet guise has been relinquished for a new hyper-charged form of ethnic nationalism. And like before where the western world for a variety of reasons turned its back on the region, no one is really lifting a finger to prevent the slaughter from continuing. When the war started it was seen as myopic to express your concern over war erupting in the heart of Europe as if you were somehow ignoring bloody conflicts in Asia or Africa. But at the heart of the realization as to why it is so hard to understand why this would happen in Europe in 2022 is the awareness that Europeans were believed to have come to their senses after WWII. The term ‘never again’ was a reasonable assumption when the European Union and NATO emerged, but equally when Stalin was steadily cleansed out of the Soviet narrative, culminating in the 1989-91 soft revolution when democracy took hold from Moscow to Bucharest to Warsaw. The ‘never again’ was not only a plausible working definition for a new world, it was also a hope that things could actually get better for all nations that rose from the rubble of two world wars. It should therefore not have been controversial to express extreme agony over a new war in Europe, it was in fact the most natural response one could possibly imagine.

Of course there was always some sort of an expectation that things could go off track. The violent collapse of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s was a case in point. The emergence of populist leaders all over Europe in the last decade indicated that a run in with a piece of dark history was imminent. This weekend we learned that one of Putin’s pals, Viktor Orban in Hungary got re-elected and in France a potential win by Marine Le Pen over liberal incumbent Macron, is technically a possibility. It is not exactly the 1930s all over again, but the slaughter in Ukraine and the not overly firm approach to really support Ukraine with weapons and resources do feel quite familiar. The brutally murdered people in Bucha are once more a reminder that all of Europe could slide into the abyss much quicker than we all think now. The fact that we see real people shot off their bikes, killed and burnt on the street and stuffed into gutters will make a far deeper impact than the abstract numbers in an era where Twitter and Facebook did not exist.

The prospects for Ukraine have not really improved over the last week. Although the end of the siege of Kyiv was celebrated, it is clear the Russian forces are regrouping and getting ready for an assault on some of the strongholds in Eastern Ukraine. We also witnessed a first attack on Odesa yesterday and continued dithering over weapon deliveries from Western Europe. What is making the picture even more troubling is that as opposed to the expectations over Russia not supporting its leader, it seems now that the reverse is materializing. Putin is solidifying his position and a ‘us versus the rest of the world’ atmosphere is rejuvenating the Russian war spirit. That also reminds us of the past. However gruesome a dictator Stalin was to his own people, in the face of Nazi Germany advancing on Moscow, the Russians rallied behind him and supported him all the way to victory in Berlin. Even now in many places he remains a revered icon of the success of empire with Putin lining up to be the 21st century version.

So, there you have it. This war is not going to end soon and is likely to get a lot bloodier. It will also seed deep feelings of hate on all sides the likes of which we have not seen in Europe for a long time. At the same time the pressure to take action on the rest of the world will be ramped up to considerable levels. Zelensky is leaving no stone unturned and even addressed the Grammys last night. It will be a real test for Europe and the US to formulate a firm response to the gruesome images of war crimes coming out of Ukraine. It will be even harder to come to the realization that if we do not find a way to stop the violence, we only need to look at history to see where it will eventually lead us.