No Way Out

The Finnish PM says it like it is on Ukraine. But beware the consequences.

The World Economic Forum in Davos is on this week and there is of course lots to be gleaned from the brainstorming going on there. Yesterday the Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, stated in an interview that the only way the Ukraine war can end is to ensure that Ukraine wins. And for good measure she added that we would not have been in these extreme circumstances if the world had reacted with a bit more force to Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014. I guess living next door to Russia sharpens the mind and where Trump failed in building a border wall, Marin is taking the next steps to actually erect one on the Finnish-Russian border. Not to stop soldiers, but migrants.

Marin’s comments come against a backdrop of steady news that is alerting us to Russia not only planning a next phase of mobilization, but also rebuilding its military supplies for a spring offensive that could even see them attacking through the northern routes like they tried to do in February last year. We forget in our analysis that it is not just Ukraine that is aiming to break the frontline stalemate, Putin badly needs one and he has the resources to do this given time and a bit more expertise and level headedness. Once winter is over a ‘Russia wins’ scenario is back on the table.

What we also should realize is that all the support going into Ukraine has helped them defend and retake some territory, but for a real advance to roll back Russia it needs offensive weaponry. So far little of that has been forthcoming, only this week it was the Brits who announced the delivery of Challenger 2 tanks. It is material like this that you need to win wars and the West has been quite reluctant so far to really ‘arm up’ Ukraine. But if we have to believe Marin, and I think she is right, the West needs to up the quantity and quality of offensive material to Ukraine. With Britain now taking a lead it may well be that other western nations will follow. With different players, different decisions will be made: Germany swapped its Minister of Defence this week, but Putin acted too as he shuffled the command for the Ukraine operation. Expect more of it in the weeks to come as we are gearing up for a difficult and bloody spring on the battlefield.

While Marin’s musings about a win for Ukraine are morally compelling and just, we will be signing up for a conflict that will not only ask us to keep arms and financial support going at full speed, it will also draw the West deeper into an intensely bloody and unpredictable conflict. If we accept that scenario it is clear that there is no way out of this, barring negotiations which both parties are still light years away from. The imagery of the mindless attacks on civilians in the Ukraine underline the necessity to act, they also highlight that there is no bottom to the depravity that Putin is willing to unleash on Ukraine.

Lastly, also yesterday, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte visited the White House to discuss Ukraine among a few other things. I watched the video and was surprised to see how much Biden was relying on his cue cards to conduct a relatively simple conversation. See for yourself. Is he too old for the job ? Or is he the steady hand that needs a little support every now and then to keep going ?