Mid-Week Updates, No 9

The Midterms turn in a different direction and may hold the key to 'de-Trump' the GOP

Midterms

So it was not the red wave that some were predicting and as of this morning it is still not clear if Republicans are back in charge of the House of Representatives. The Senate is undecided and in one state, Georgia, there is likely going be runoff election as neither candidate got to the required 50% to win. So a lot more vote counting to come still.

What stood out last night really was a surprisingly strong Democratic party with some clear wins and some gains in areas where the margins were wafer thin. Joe Biden’s sunset is still on, but he looked considerably stronger this morning than many incumbent presidents who had faced a similar midterm challenge. Two things to take away:

The Democrats turned the narrative around and did relatively well given Biden’s low popularity and deep economic troubles. The projections factored in a level of frustration that somehow did not materialize at the ballot box. The most likely conclusion if you look at the various races is that the Republicans were not seen as the party to stand up and fix things. In fact, the electorate kept some distance from a party that is too much associated with Trump and his cabal of election deniers. They do not have the necessary ability to break into the middle ground and capture important swing seats. Maybe it was not such a great idea to let Trump endorse Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania or Kari Lake and Blake Masters in Arizona.

And herein lies the opening for de-Trumping the party. Most of the attention was focused on the gubernatorial win of Ron DeSantis. It was expected yes, but it was an incredibly huge win and it has turned Florida from a traditional swing state into a solid red state. It will give DeSantis the momentum and support to seriously challenge Trump. He’s a now the potential nominee with not only a track record of governing, but also the ability to win with a huge margin in a divided state and above all: no connection to the weirder excesses that have characterized the recent GOP. None of that can be said about Trump of course. Florida’s governor could be it.

Ukraine

And let’s face it, this is good news for Ukraine too. The veiled threats to pull away support once Republicans made it back to controlling congress are still to be taken seriously, but it seems there’s not enough leverage to force a reversal on Biden’s foreign policies.

In Ukraine itself the reign of terror continues with relentless attacks on the country’s civil infrastructure. There is still a chance that for instance Kyiv will have to get through winter without heating, power and water which would necessitate a mass evacuation of the capital. This is yet another war crime and all the more reason for Ukraine’s forces to press on. And here they continue to make steady progress, today the Russians ordered the evacuation of the city of Kherson, which is a big win for Ukraine. While good news, a few weeks ago I called this war a ‘meat grinder’. Here’s an article describing just that. It is gruesome and Russia’s freshly minted soldiers do not stand a chance.

Russia is running out of military options and international support for Ukraine remains intact, for now. This is why Putin (with back-up from Iran) is resorting to the indiscriminate violence affecting Ukrainians while sending his troops into an unwinnable battle. A long winter of war ahead.