Mid-Week Updates, No 5
With a focus on Iran and its impact on the world
Local elections here and over the weekend I was helping out a local candidate for mayor, going door-to-door and discussing municipal issues with residents in our neighbourhood. One of them is of Persian origin and she asked us if we knew what was happening in Iran. She had just heard about the hacking of the national TV in Iran and was obviously more interested in that than our evaluating our local budgets for road and waterworks. Of course we were aware, but my question for her was: what can we do? The answer was simple: raise awareness, talk about it. So as of today more attention for Iran here on my newsletter. Today a sort of summary and introduction with some useful links.
The Protests
As of this weekend some 185 protestors have been in killed in demonstrations that have spread all over Iran following the violent death of Mahsa Amini. It was to be expected that the crackdown by the regime on this uprising (led by women resisting the compulsory hijab) would be both indiscriminate and extremely violent. We are now getting more and more updates on teenagers murdered by Iranian forces (which are generally referred to as IRGC for ease of reference). In addition to Amini the names of Nika Shahkarami, Hadis Najafi and Sarina Esmailzadeh keep coming up. Their photos featured on the TV hack, below an image of Iranian leader Khamenei with a target on his head, see photo above. We need to be aware that the internet is being shut down in most places, so it is often hard to say what exactly is going on where and what the impact is on the levels of popular resistance overall. The repression by the IRGC has no bounds with intimidation and violence extending to those protestors murdered, the few videos and photos that make it out are both scary and gruesome. It is a sort of Tiananmen style massacre on a national scale, only then in Iran in 2022.
Its Importance
It goes without saying that the regime in Iran, which has now been in power since 1979, is not only repressing its people in a brutal manner, but it has also prevented any meaningful economic and social progress. And that despite its richesse, notably natural resources. Multiple economic crises, no doubt exacerbated by international sanctions on Iran have created tensions that required little to surface and explode. But in the sanctions we find the international angle that makes the story crucial to all of us, and in a far more direct way.
Iran’s radical stance and role as de-stabilizer in the Middle East has been well documented, it started out with the Iran-Iraq War of the early eighties. It was followed by exporting and supporting terror globally, the Salman Rushdie fatwa, all the way to direct involvement in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Gaza strip. This has been paired with a focused determination to build nuclear capabilities, something if accomplished would change the entire power balance in the Middle East and the world at large. The brunt of the nuclear threats was however always reserved for Israel who, lessons learned, have taken these very seriously. So over the last few decades we have seen rising tensions over the nuclear plans with Israel seeking direct intervention and destruction, but where the US and other world powers were crafting a deal to contain these nuclear ambitions. It resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, a treaty that many argued was nothing more than a postponement of Iran getting readily deployable nuclear arms at some point in the near future. In any case, a deal was a deal, and it was marketed as a way that would contain Iran. Donald Trump looked at it differently, withdrew the US from it and this sent the regime in Tehran back to an aggressive roadmap to get nuclear missiles ready and deployable.
So in its focus to get the JCPOA across the line the Obama administration resolved to work with Iran and not against it. This implied that during the civil war in Syria (which started in 2011) the US did not intervene which gave the Iran and Russia supported regime of Syrian leader Assad everything it needed to suppress the revolt in his country. Russia used Syria as a sort of practice area, honing its skills to wage brutal warfare against in particular civilian targets and the lessons of which are now used against Ukrainians. In an indirect way the US was so keen to see a deal with Iran that it let Syria bleed and created a much stronger and belligerent Iran while no doubt elevating the mood in Moscow. Putin also benefitted from this in more ways than one as he is now actually receiving much needed (drones among other things) military equipment from Iran. All of this is saying in a roundabout that if in Iran a real revolution takes place, a complete realignment of power will shift the Middle East in a new and potentially more peaceful direction. It will also mean that Russia will lose one of its few remaining allies and this have some impact on how the war in Ukraine further unfolds.
So that is why what is happening on the street of Tehran, Sananday, Saqez, Rasht and even the holy city of Qom is relevant to all of us really.
Who to Follow
There are so many great resources to check out, ranging from deep analysis to ongoing new reports. Two places to start (or add if you don’t follow them) are the following. Terry Glavin is a journalist who has been on the Iran file for a long time and for instance recently discussed the IRGC’s presence in Canada, among other things. The champion of Iran activism is of course NY-based Masih Alinejad, also known as the Iranian regime’s most wanted woman. She survived some attempts on her life and you can and should follow her on Twitter:
Agree this is important, and will share. Thank you for the work put into this. Would still like to have your thoughts on municipal issues.