Mid-Week Updates, No 32
The Long Road in Ukraine, the Trump Indictment Show and Rudy
Russia’s Long Game
As we are getting into the second half of August, it is a good time to assess the progress of Ukraine’s summer offensive. Based on the marginal progress and the rapidly ending favourable weather conditions we have to come to the realization that the core objectives of pushing Russia out of most occupied territories has failed. With that it has now become very hard to see how any mediated discussions between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a temporary ceasefire, or even a longer lasting peace deal. President Zelensky - photographed at the Donetsk frontlines this week - would not be negotiating from a position of any strength and would be forced to accept the for him less than desirable frontlines as the final borders for some time to come. This is the exact opposite of this summer’s war plan.
It means we are going into another dark and possibly bloody winter where even less border movements can be expected. The only caveats to this war of attrition scenario are the other emerging frontlines. Russia is continuing to attack civilian targets, yesterday the western town of Lutsk came under attack with mostly innocent victims. It is a gruesome tool of terror that continues to be used even in areas where Ukraine least expects it. At the same time the Black Sea - following Russia pulling out of the grain deal - is now becoming a war theatre which in turn has far reaching consequences for Ukraine’s economy and food supply lines into other regions. Ukraine continues to be challenged on multiple fronts.
Gearing up for this long winter haul requires continued western support for Ukraine which remains subject to the political will to keep on delivering this. And there are cracks emerging in the resolve to do so, this week a NATO official hinted at Ukraine making land concessions to Russia in return for membership of the military alliance. What is more important is to see how Russia is playing a long game in not only feeding its war machine, but more crucially in trying to win public opinion in the west. I see it on social media every day, where all of sudden a spike in critical posts about Ukraine is clearly visible. And whatever you may think of the numbers sampled, it is an unmistakable trend that some nations will tire of this war and force a rethink in a lot of western capitals. It is a deliberate strategy orchestrated from Moscow and it does have an impact on how key nations like Germany and France structure their ongoing involvement in this war. Putin may be down but he is far from out.
Another Indictment
This week’s massive indictment in Georgia is the fourth big legal case thrown at former president Trump. The reason this is seen as more impactful than the previous ones is because of the nature of the charges. Firstly, these are state level charges and if Trump were to ever be re-elected president he could never pardon himself as that ability is restricted to federal sentences, not state levels ones. The second aspect is the nature of the indictment, not just Trump, but 18 of his fellow conspirators are now charged with 41 felony counts, and they have received these under Georgia’s Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, better known as RICO. This act was designed to go after organized crime groups and apparently Georgia’s version of RICO goes much further than the federal version as they are seen to be far more easily provable in court than its federal counterpart.
But the core drama of the 2024 presidential election however remains the same. Trump will continue to leverage the legal mess he is in as a conspiracy against him to rally his supporters. The GOP will continue to not disown him, any risk that Trump would bolt and launch a third party initiative would split and destroy the party’s chances to win back the White House. So all the legal cases and attendant media performances will continue to not only dominate the presidential race, but also at some point probably suck the life and resources out of Trump’s own campaign. At least, that’s what one would expect, at some point the well will run dry.
Rudy’s Fall
Not sure when exactly it was, but I clearly remember an appearance by Rudy Giuliani in Vancouver where the host of the evening announced him as ‘The Next President of the United States" to a roaring crowd. Yes in Canada: America’s Mayor was that popular in the early 2000s as the man who cleaned up New York and rallied his city around the devastating attacks on 9/11.
Now he is indicted under the aforementioned RICO charges he himself used in the 1980s when he was a crime busting U.S. Attorney. It is hard to fathom how the incorruptible Giuliani fell from grace and even this longer NYT piece - which makes for a wild read - fails to fully explain it. There is little doubt that it was Trump who damaged Rudy’s moral spine beyond repair. It is up to historians and psychologists to figure out exactly how that happened. Still, I treasure the man he once was, his initial career was a case study for success, business and everything else. His life and lessons still stand among the ruin he has become.
