Mid-Week Updates, No 29
Ukraine, MH17, Israel
On Monday this week it was exactly nine years ago that Russian air artillery operating in the Donetsk Oblast in Ukraine took down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, killing 289 passengers among whom were 193 Dutch people, most on their way to holiday and business trips in Asia and Australia. It was one of the most gut wrenching air disasters, in particular given the way Russian authorities dealt with it at the time and in all the years thereafter. They frustrated the initial recovery efforts, the subsequent investigation and in the end the trial during which three Russians were found guilty and convicted in absentia. A traumatic event and the Russians are still fighting the outcome, claiming “The Netherlands is a land of lies” as painted on a truck parked in front of the Dutch Embassy in Moscow, see photo. I commend the current ambassador - an old university acquaintance of mine - to fulfil his diplomatic duties as western ambassador at Putin’s court in that sort of environment. Not an easy job.
I bring this up because the saga always comes back in some shape or form and in particular as we did not realize it at the time, that fateful summer of 2014, that the MH17 disaster was part of a conflict that would escalate to an all-out war in 2022. A war that has us technically still balancing on the edge of a much wider, potentially world-wide, conflict.
And so how are we doing on that one? The speed of events remains breathtaking, in the span of one week we have gone from a NATO Summit to an attack on the strategically important Kerch Bridge, and now the Grain Deal with Russia is on the line which may bring Turkey closer into the conflict. Given the abundance of information available online I could give you a very plausible scenario as to how Ukraine could win the war, for instance by contrasting long term NATO resources with Russia’s weapons delivery capabilities, Ukraine’s agile forces and determination to expel an army of aggressors. But I could just as easily point to the slow mobilization of NATO resources (the F-16s will not fly until February), the endless well of Russian human resources who will not only fight but keep building minefields and related defences as reasons for a strong Russian showing.
The bottom line is that this war will continue for an undetermined long while, the slow moving Ukrainian summer offensive is evidence of just that. Continuation of the hostilities will demand more and more resources without giving a clear edge to either party, yet. So any prediction will have to be made by taking into consideration the political aspects: how far will NATO let it go and how far can Putin take it before his role is subject to ‘domestic adjustments’. Not much has changed since February 2022, and come to think of it, since July 2014.
Israel
You will recall me attending the protests in Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem back in February when I was there attending a tech conference. After a break for the country’s 75th anniversary and attempts to broker a compromise, these massive protests are back on. And they are now becoming violent which is a reflection of a change in police leadership and Bibi Nethanyahu’s coalition uncompromising attitude in bringing forward legislation that will curb judicial powers and enhance governments ability to push through controversial measures without any checks and balances. This week Israel’s president - which is a ceremonial but still important office - is in the US, meeting Biden and others and the ever growing rift in Israeli society is high on the list of things to be discussed.
There are three major issues coming out of this:
Civil Collapse - What is happening is not just a political rift, but a wholesale breakdown of Israel in two camps: a religious and conservative versus an atheist and progressive one. It is not unlike the red-blue division in the US, as long as it works it works, but if things start to break down an entire society risks falling apart.
Security Compromised - This is exacerbated by Israel’s security position. Its enemies now smell an opportunity and if indeed reservists are threatening to check out of certain duties it will undermine armed forces’ cohesiveness and morale.
Ruthless Politics - Why is Nethanyahu doubling down on this legislation, why would he gamble his unique and often successful record, indeed the family name itself, to placate his hardline coalition members? Some of my Israeli friends are quite cynical and tell me that it is the only way for him to stay out of jail. Not a far-fetched scenario, one other Israeli PM actually ended up behind bars not too long ago.
Any of these three would seriously undermine any functioning democracy. All three together is a unique combination that could rip a country into pieces. The Jewish nation has been here before and they may figure this out once more. But it is not a pleasant spectacle.